Survivor: South Pacific
Then There Were Five
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
December 18, 2011
Hello, good people, and welcome to the penultimate edition of the BOP Survivor recap. After last week's ousting of Edna, we are down to the original Upolu alliance. Coach, Albert, Sophie, Brandon and Rick have run the table. Night one on the Upolu beach saw "temporary" three-time player Coach Wade telling his new tribe mates that a strong alliance of five could run the game all the way to the end. Those four folks bought into his story and whaddaya know? Here they are, the final five of the game. (Sure, there are two people sitting on Redemption Island...but you all know what I mean.)
After our boy Johnny Cochs almost took out Ozzy last week at Redemption Island, Edna gets her shot at him this week. The previews suggest that Edna has a huge lead on Ozzy at some point. I can't imagine they would show us in the preview that Ozzy loses, but you never know. We also get to see the Upolu five finally turn on each other. Rick and Albert are shouting at each other. Sophie is trying to break into it. If this continues, Coach and Brandon can punch their tickets to the final three. But that's why they play the game. Let's check some Power Rankings and then get to it.
Coach - 10-1. I'm taking Coach's odds down a touch, but I still think he's in the best shape to win the game. He formed this alliance and he's done a ton of the work to keep it alive. He kept Brandon in check and he brought in Cochran when they needed a vote. He held onto Edna as long as they needed her vote and he's made all of the right moves at all the right times. But now we're down to it. This is where the Marianos and Hatches of the world really make a mark. Coach is not in their class...yet. The next couple of days will determine whether or not he should be.
Sophie - 12-1. I keep saying it...Sophie is the most dangerous player in this game. She's smart, she's won challenges and she just may well be the brains of the whole operation. I see almost no way she doesn't make the final three. Her challenge, once there, will be to convince the jury that she didn't just ride Coach's coattails and that she really played a hard game. We've seen it, but I'm not 100% sure the Savaii tribe has seen it.
Ozzy - 20-1. I really don't see the others having a shot. Ozzy will win this game if he makes it to the end. Period. Anyone else, I'd say they have no chance. But when all he needs to do is win three or four more challenges...Ozzy can do that with his eyes closed.
Albert - 25-1. Albert's the third in the power alliance, but I don't think he's likable and I don't think he's played a good enough game to win. He tries to make moves, but they never materialize. People see that stuff and I think when it comes down to it, the jury would rather give the money to anyone other than Albert's smug ass.