Survivor: South Pacific
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
October 27, 2011
Jim - 10-1. I'm moving Jim up this week because every time he speaks to the camera, the dude just "gets it." He knows that keeping Ozzy in this game helps him. If his tribe keeps winning challenges, he'll have the numbers at the merge. Once the merge gets here, he knows Ozzy (and probably Keith) will be bigger physical threats than him. I really think Jim has a good shot and making the final Tribal at this point in the show.
Albert/Sophie - 15-1. Albert and Sophie took a shot last week. Not because they had any special ties to Mikayla, but because the rest of the tribe sided with Coach over them. I do, however, think this relationship can be repaired and this group can reclaim some dominance. The main point here is that there was no deception or lying before this vote. All the cards were on the table and Albert and Sophie knew they were in direct conflict with Coach and Brandon. If they can just shake hands and agree to move on, they could still be THE power alliance in the game.
Ozzy - 20-1. I still don't like Ozzy's outlook, but he does seem to be back with the tribe. They won immunity and everyone's a happy family again. He still has the idol and he still has a stellar individual challenge record to take with him, should he wind up at Redemption Island after tonight's vote.
Dawn/Johnny Cochs - 25-1. If Ozzy does end up taking the Redemption route, Dawn and Cochran move up a step as they'd be part of a three person alliance in a tribe of five. If they stick with Jim, they could well work their way into a fun Final Three.
Rick - 30-1. I'll put Rick in here because I really don't know where else to put him. He's part of the main alliance at Upolu, but how much a part? I don't know. I just wish he'd DO something to give me an opinion one way or another.
Keith/Whitney - 40-1. I think these two are still pretty much linked together. Ozzy may be the next vote at Savaii, but these two will be next in line. And since Ozzy has an idol, I wouldn't be shocked to see Jim target one of these two at the next Tribal to bust up the other potential power couple.
Edna - 50-1. She's still in Coach's pocket, but I don't know how much longer he can protect her. She's a wasted roster spot in challenges and I don't think Albert and Sophie will wait much longer to send her out of here. Her only hope is that Brandon has become so annoying and unpredictable that they decide to cut him loose and keep her.
Brandon - 75-1. That being said, I think that day is coming. The latest Tribal outburst by Brandon now has everyone on edge, I think. I would not be shocked to see him leave the game tonight, should Upolu lose again. There are no secrets with Brandon and he is playing one of the dumbest games of Survivor ever. Anyone who aligns with him is running the risk of having him take them down with him.