You Started, You're Finishing
By Jim Van Nest
December 5, 2010
Hello, good people, and welcome to another thrilling edition of Survivor: Nicaragua. David and Kim have other commitments this evening, so you guys get stuck with me. Been a while since I've done a Survivor recap, but I have a feeling I can remember how to do it.
Before we get into tonight's episode, how about I chime in on this season thus far and how I see things potentially playing out the rest of the way? First off, this is easily one of the dumbest casts I can remember in the history of the game. Every decision seems to defy logic and every vote is an adventure - from Marty voting out Jimmy Johnson, just so he could tell his drinking buddies that he voted out Jimmy Johnson, to Sash spending the last two votes knocking out two-thirds of his actual alliance, essentially leaving himself as a one man gang with an immunity idol.
The older tribe basically destroyed themselves with stupid votes. They continually voted out strong players while letting people like Dan, who can barely even walk, slide by. The younger tribe apparently got scared by a prosthetic leg and spent the better part of the first half of the season plotting to get rid of it. Once the tribes swapped, the stupid just intensified. Marty decided to come clean about having an idol and then because he backed himself into a corner, he gave it away to Sash for one more night in the game. NaOnka stole the tribe's food, refused to accept blame and somehow she ended up propped up to be in the strongest position in the game. And don't even get me started about using wood as a way to block the wind from their fire.
This has just been one dumb decision after another. Quite possibly the dumbest decision yet is that they continue to keep Jane in this game, despite the fact that she's dominating challenges and WILL win the jury votes at the end. If she even gets a whiff of the final tribal, she's a millionaire. (Actually, she'll probably be a $1.1 millionaire as she has to be a lock for the fan favorite $100 grand.)
One last thing before I get into this recap...I'm gonna break down the chances each player has to win this game and let’s see how it turns out.
Jane: Even money. She's a workhorse, she has more will power than anyone I've ever seen and everyone loves her (save Marty). Again, if she makes it to the end, she wins.
Holly: 4-1. Holly has really turned herself into a player and I think if the tribe wises up and dumps Jane, Holly could be the beneficiary. She shook things up by starting the talk of dumping Brenda last week and I think she could be rewarded for that.
Jud (Fabio): 8-1. I realize Fabio isn't hooked up with the power alliance. Then again, he hasn't been throughout the game. He's not as dumb as he seems and I think he's likable enough that if he can find a way into that final tribal, he could be Jane's only competition. I just don't know that he's got as good a shot at the final three as Holly.
NaOnka: 10-1. Na seems to be hooked into the right alliance right now. I think she has a good shot as making the final three, but little to no shot of actually getting the cash.
Chase: 12-1. Chase has a shot at getting to the end, but he's been so wishy-washy and because he spent the first month of this game being Brenda's bitch, I don't think he has a chance in hell of getting the votes to win this game.
Sash: 15-1. If you had asked me three weeks ago, Sash would have been right behind Jane. But voting out his strongest allies two weeks in a row was not one of the brighter things for him to do. He has an idol, but that will only get him so far. He has pretty much screwed the pooch on what could have been an easy ride to the finals. As it is now, he'll really have to step up his game if he's to make it to the end.
Dan: 20-1. He's such a non-threat that it's possible that the entire cast will be trying to figure out just how Dan managed to make it into the final tribal. And wouldn't THAT be a gem of a speech? Dude should have been the first one voted out (well, that first chick WAS annoying) Okay, second one voted out. And yet, he still hobbles along.
Benry - 25-1 Benry is pretty much an idiot. He's there for the ride and despite performing relatively well in the challenges, he still hasn't actually won one. His alliance is with Dan and Fabio and I suppose they could ride a wave to the end, but I really don't see that happening. And since he's more of a threat at challenges than Dan, he'll be taken out first.
Purple Kelly - 1 gazillion to 1 She gets these odds because I'm still not convinced she exists.
Okay, enough stalling...let's get to tonight's episode, shall we?