Survivor: South Pacific
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
October 25, 2011
Dawn/Johnny Cochs - 20-1. I put these two together now, because they are a solid 2 and 3 to Jim's 1 in their alliance. Unless Ozzy plays smart, they should be solid enough to cruise into the merge. Once at the merge, these two will be seen as lesser targets than Keith or Jim or even Whitney, which means they could fly under the radar for a little while before anyone really notices they're there.
Rick/Mikayla/Edna - 30-1. Once again, these three have done nothing to distinguish themselves. Rick never speaks. Edna speaks, but annoys everyone when she does. And Mikayla is still flaunting around her little girl parts and making Brandon feel funny in his shorts. Honestly, I wish one or more of them would do SOMEthing, because I'm running out of things to say about them in the rankings every week.
Keith/Whitney - 40-1. Our biggest droppers this week are Keith and Whitney. They completely screwed the pooch last week by taking the sissy way out and throwing their votes away on Dawn. At this point, who will trust them? Their only shot now is if Ozzy realizes his ONLY play is with them, or if they go on a crazy immunity run and go into the merge with numbers. Either way, Keith will be seen as a huge threat once the tribes merge and Whitney is exactly the kind of girl to REALLY send Brandon over the edge. So things aren't looking good for these two.
Brandon - 75-1. Should Upolu end up at Tribal tonight, I think it's time for Brandon to go. Coach is having Russell flashbacks with the kid and he's just too much of a wild card to keep around. The previews show Savaii having a hard time with the challenge, which means they'll probably have some improbable comeback which will send Lil Hantz off to Redemption Island.
Christine - 100-1. Okay, so I bet against her last week and that was a mistake. Christine is definitely on a mission. I keep saying that she's no Elrod, but after three big wins, that's EXACTLY what she seems to be. I don't see Elyse as being much of a challenge to her this time around and I think she lives to bitch another day.
Elyse - 1 million-1. It's not your fault, Elyse. You did most everything right. You just got a little too close to Ozzy. People are now afraid of couples in this game and you put yourself right into one. Also, you've been okay in challenges, but Christine is battle tested and ready to chew you up and spit you out. But don't worry, I'm sure Ozzy will call when the season's over.
We begin this week, as you would expect, by checking in with the Savaii tribe. As advertised, Ozzy is not happy. He's really upset with Keith and Whitney. He feels like he can't trust anyone now. He says he's done with alliances and he's a free agent. Keith comes back asking if he's saying that it's him versus everyone. Whitney doesn't get why he's taking it so personally.
Okay, now I'm kinda with Ozzy. Are you serious? You broke your alliance and dumped his girlfriend without telling him. What else could it be but personal?? Dawn, the first voice of reason, tells Ozzy to give her a break, he's withholding information and he knows it. "I've got the idol, how 'bout that?" Seriously? That's a rookie move, Oz. Boston Rob and even Russell think you're an idiot now. You NEVER tell the enemy you have an idol, what the hell is wrong with you??
He goes on to mention to the tribe that they seem to be forgetting about Redemption. Keith comes back perfectly, "If you want to go there, just let us know, man." Ozzy tells us that he's just gonna put everything out there and if it doesn't work out, he's always got Redemption. Yeah, give Matt Elrod a call and ask him how that worked out for him.