Survivor: Redemption Island

It Don't Take A Smart One

By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst

March 31, 2011

But Russell promised we'd win! And if you can't trust Russell, then who?

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Ashley - 30-1
I took Ashley away from the other Ometepe hotties because she really seemed to be the focus of Phillip's tirade last week. She was also the mouthy one who felt the need to spout back at him. In all honesty, Phillip wasn't wrong. He shouldn't have to come to her with an engraved invitation to collect wood. She should just get up and do it. With three young girls on the tribe, Rob has his pick of non-working, coattail riders. Ashley's attitude could be enough to put her right after Phil on the "gotta go" list.

Sarita - 40-1
Easily the weakest player left in the game, if Zapatera loses tonight, we'll see how important loyalty, trust and a vote are. The Zaps are in the middle of an epic meltdown and keeping the weak Sarita over the strong and smart David would be a huge blunder. And yes, I think it's a blunder this tribe will make. Sarita is a guaranteed vote - and Steve/Mike/Ralph/Julie have no desire to get rid of that vote just yet.

David - 50-1
I like David and I think he brings a lot to the game. But I think he really screwed up last week. Is Sarita the weak link in the tribe? Hands down. But was Stephanie that much stronger? Would it be an upgrade to replace Ryan Leaf with JaMarcus Russell? Maybe, but not enough to risk my coaching career. And that's what David did last week. He went all in on what was only a mild upgrade in performance. The only thing to save him if Zapatera votes tonight is that Sarita is considerably weaker than he is...though the alliance hasn't shown that they really care about strength and winning. They just care about loyalty...and getting rid of Russell.


Phillip - 100-1
After the explosions last week and the suggestion that Phillip may be targeting Rob, Phil's days are numbered. If Ometepe loses tonight, I see no other option for them but to send The Specialist to Redemption Island for a little re-con.

Matt - 250-1
While I still don't have him last on the list, I have a bad feeling for Matt this week. He's gone on an amazing run to be sure. But he hasn't run across anything like the spunky little ball of rage that is Stephanie. I'm still listing him first because after all, to be the man, you gotta beat the man. But I wouldn't be shocked to see Matt have to burn his buff tonight.

Stephanie - 1 million-1
Common sense tells me, Stephanie's going home tonight. But Survivor sense tells me, she may just stay. The Survivor editors have made it quite well known that Stephanie plans to join Rob at the merge. I keep thinking to myself, why would they focus on that, if Rob and Stephanie never make it to the same tribe?

We begin this week at Zapatera as the tribe comes back from Tribal. Steve speaks up and hopes that the tribe can put their differences aside and become a team again. Wow, is this guy delusional! Sarita, after hearing how she is the weak link on the tribe and does very little around camp, comes out of Tribal learning one thing, David is a backstabbing snake. What? The more this season goes on, the more I don't like Zapatera. David is the only one speaking with any kind of sense.

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