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Natalie/Ashley/Andrea - 30-1 I lump Andrea back in here as it looks like she's gotten over the Matt boot. None of these girls has shown me anything to suggest they're playing the game, aside from letting Rob make all the decisions. The scary thing is, if they ever get a clue and decide to band together, they could take over the Ometepe tribe and possibly get far in this game. As it is now, they're too passive and they'll eventually get eaten up out there.

Krista - 50-1 Krista sits above Stephanie, only because Stephanie is the most vocal of the 2. The only chance Krista has is if the suggested havoc they wreak this week divides the core alliance 3-3 and allows her to be a swing vote. If it doesn't, I'd say she survives the next Zapatera vote...but she'll be gone if they vote again.

Matt - 100-1 Yes, that's right. I've moved Matt up PAST someone who's still in the original game. Matt has won two duels in a row now and has proven to be a picture of grace under pressure. He seems so singularly focused on getting back into this game that I'm starting to think that he'll beat ANYone that shows up at RI. Kristina is up next and should provide little challenge to him. I'd expect to see Stephanie and Krista on RI soon, which should give Matt a couple more good chances to advance.

Stephanie - 250-1 I put Stephanie below Matt because I expect to see her voted out this week (if Zapatera loses immunity, of course). Which means, Matt will send her home in next week's RI duel. She threw her lot in with Russell from day one and it will prove to be her undoing as now that Russell is gone, she is the most unlikable person on the tribe and will be targeted to pay for her alliance with him.

Kristina - 1 million-1 Kristina had the potential to put together a good game. She found an idol without a clue and she was playing hard from day one. her only mistake was not trying to make a deal with Rob right off the bat. He doesn't say it to everyone like Russell does, but you're either with him or against him. Kristina chose "against him" on the second day of the game and this week should be her final hurrah. I expect Matt to win this duel easily and boost his confidence even more.

We begin tonight's episode at the Ometepe tribe after Tribal Council. They arrive in the pouring rain to find nice dry blankets underneath their tarp. (Nice going Zapatera...you gave them that tarp.) Phillip is a little bummed to find himself on the outside of the alliance. The next morning, the discussion turns to how annoying Phillip is. Rob tells us that everyone is sick of Phillip and that he gets on everyone's nerves, including his. Of course, as long as Phillip is taking the heat, Rob isn't getting noticed, so maybe Phillip should stay.

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