In Contention

By Josh Spiegel

January 10, 2011

Who knew there was so much politics among white trash?

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As I mentioned in the last column, the 2011 Oscar season officially began on January 4th. By that date, all but one critics’ group had announced their best-of awards (the National Society of Film Critics was last, and announced over the weekend that they selected The Social Network as the best picture of the year), and the industry guilds had begun announcing their nominations. It’s been stressed here and elsewhere online, but I’ll say it again: critics’ awards are great, but critics don’t vote for the Oscars. It would, of course, be as foolish to assume that Academy voters will not vote in The Social Network as Best Picture just to go against the grain, but even with the unprecedented onslaught of hosannas, there’s no guarantee that The Social Network takes home the gold on February 27th.

However, with the announcement from the Producers Guild of America and the Writers’ Guild of America, The Social Network can take comfort in the knowledge that it’s pretty much locked into getting as many nominations as possible when the Oscar nods are announced on the morning of January 25th. In fact, with the actors, producers, writers, and a few other below-the-line (art direction, sound, etc.) guilds having chimed in, the race is becoming a little more clear. The first guild awards worth looking at are from the Producers Guild. Like the Best Picture Oscar nominees, there are ten in the list, and they are Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, and True Grit. Although there are a few films still in the mix that didn’t show up on this list (notably Winter’s Bone, a very low-budget film that was unlikely to get praise from the big-budget-loving producers), this could be the top ten.




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How do we all feel about these movies being the top ten, I wonder? On one level, I’m a bit taken aback. Living outside of Los Angeles or New York means that I don’t get the chance to watch tons of Oscar contenders before their wide releases (and no, I don’t get screeners, though wouldn’t it be nice?). However, this year will be the first in a while - that I can remember - where I saw all of the Oscar nominees before the end of the calendar year. Even if Winter’s Bone ends up being among the Best Picture nominees (replacing, perhaps, 127 Hours), I’ll have already seen it. It’s rare for so many of the Oscar hopefuls to not be late-December releases, and while some clearly are, films such as Inception, The Town, Toy Story 3, and The Kids Are All Right came out at the time of year when Oscar movies don’t typically come out.

The Writers Guild of America awards are a bit shakier, partly because so many films were disqualified for one reason or another. As a note, don’t fret that The King’s Speech, Toy Story 3, or a slew of other movies don’t show up here, as they were among those disqualified scripts. For Original Screenplay, the nominees are Black Swan, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Inception, and Please Give. The latter film was a little-seen indie dramedy from earlier in the year that’s gotten strong reviews, but is only showing up here because The King’s Speech, an original script, isn’t allowed to be nominated. For Adapted Screenplay, the nominees are 127 Hours, I Love You, Phillip Morris, The Social Network, The Town, and True Grit. As mentioned above, just substitute Phillip Morris for Toy Story 3, which is just about a guaranteed nominee.



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