In Contention
By Josh Spiegel
January 10, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
However, with the announcement from the Producers Guild of America and the Writers’ Guild of America, The Social Network can take comfort in the knowledge that it’s pretty much locked into getting as many nominations as possible when the Oscar nods are announced on the morning of January 25th. In fact, with the actors, producers, writers, and a few other below-the-line (art direction, sound, etc.) guilds having chimed in, the race is becoming a little more clear. The first guild awards worth looking at are from the Producers Guild. Like the Best Picture Oscar nominees, there are ten in the list, and they are Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, and True Grit. Although there are a few films still in the mix that didn’t show up on this list (notably Winter’s Bone, a very low-budget film that was unlikely to get praise from the big-budget-loving producers), this could be the top ten.
How do we all feel about these movies being the top ten, I wonder? On one level, I’m a bit taken aback. Living outside of Los Angeles or New York means that I don’t get the chance to watch tons of Oscar contenders before their wide releases (and no, I don’t get screeners, though wouldn’t it be nice?). However, this year will be the first in a while - that I can remember - where I saw all of the Oscar nominees before the end of the calendar year. Even if Winter’s Bone ends up being among the Best Picture nominees (replacing, perhaps, 127 Hours), I’ll have already seen it. It’s rare for so many of the Oscar hopefuls to not be late-December releases, and while some clearly are, films such as Inception, The Town, Toy Story 3, and The Kids Are All Right came out at the time of year when Oscar movies don’t typically come out.
The Writers Guild of America awards are a bit shakier, partly because so many films were disqualified for one reason or another. As a note, don’t fret that The King’s Speech, Toy Story 3, or a slew of other movies don’t show up here, as they were among those disqualified scripts. For Original Screenplay, the nominees are Black Swan, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Inception, and Please Give. The latter film was a little-seen indie dramedy from earlier in the year that’s gotten strong reviews, but is only showing up here because The King’s Speech, an original script, isn’t allowed to be nominated. For Adapted Screenplay, the nominees are 127 Hours, I Love You, Phillip Morris, The Social Network, The Town, and True Grit. As mentioned above, just substitute Phillip Morris for Toy Story 3, which is just about a guaranteed nominee.
Still, eight of the PGA nominees show up in the WGA nods, so these two guilds’ awards are good news for 127 Hours and The Town, which have been on the lower end of the contender scale. The Town, however, is getting a big boost from the plaudits and praise throughout the industry. When someone as beloved and notable as Robert Duvall (who last year raved about Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker) goes nuts for The Town, it’s worth paying attention to. Clearly, this Boston-set crime drama has hit the right notes for enough voters that it won’t be too surprising if the film gets a few Oscar nominations. Whether they’re deserved is something we can debate after the fact, but don’t be shocked if it busts through as something of a dark horse.
The Screen Actors Guild has already nominated Black Swan, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, and The Social Network for its Best Ensemble award. The Cinema Audio Society, this past week, nominated Black Swan, Inception, Shutter Island, The Social Network, and True Grit for achievement in sound mixing. Sound mixing may seem like a bit of a niche category, but the people who vote in the sound mixing category represent the below-the-line voter whose votes can sometimes be as powerful, combined, as the actors’ vote in the Academy (the biggest single category of voters) is. The common elements are few, but important to note. Black Swan and The Social Network are the only two that show up throughout all of the aforementioned guilds, but True Grit, The Fighter, Inception, The King’s Speech, and The Kids Are All Right remain strong contenders.
So, what we’re left with is very few unsure things. Winter’s Bone, Blue Valentine, and Another Year, three independent films (two of which are still yet to open wide), are duking it out with 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right, and The Town to be among the Best Picture Oscar contenders. The more definite nominees - or the more presumed definite nominees - are The Social Network, The King’s Speech, Black Swan, The Fighter, True Grit, Inception, and Toy Story 3. Are these the best films you saw in 2010? Did you even see all of these 13 prospective nominees? I can admit that I have not seen Blue Valentine and Another Year, for not having opened near me yet. Though there are a couple of other hopefuls - Rabbit Hole, which may garner Nicole Kidman another acting nomination - these are the films that may get nominated, by looking at the guilds.
There’s still time to wonder what kind of year in film 2010 was, if we like to define it by the Oscars and who wins and loses. The themes that stuck out this year was characters not discerning reality from fantasy, and ambition, behind and in front of the screen. Even now, when I become more and more disillusioned with the process of the Oscars, I’m somewhat glad to know that the films I love are being validated by the Academy. My top five films of the year - in order, Black Swan, Inception, Toy Story 3, The Social Network, and True Grit - are all likely nominees, and three of them have a very, very good shot of winning big at the Oscar ceremony. (Worthless points to you if you figure out which ones I mean.)
But, as it always goes, looking at the new year of movies seems a bit disheartening. Maybe that’s the best part of the Oscar season extending into the new year; you can ignore new movies like Season of the Witch and The Dilemma, and focus more on the past. As we await the winners of the yearly Golden Globes and the Directors Guild nominations - both occurring this week - take some time on the forthcoming long weekend and watch a movie from 2010 that you loved. Even if that movie wasn’t an Oscar hopeful, watch it and remember what you loved from this year. That’s what the Oscars should be for; it only works if we actually remember to honor our personal favorites. The Oscars, as much as we may obsess over them, aren’t going to give us that satisfaction.