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Still, eight of the PGA nominees show up in the WGA nods, so these two guilds’ awards are good news for 127 Hours and The Town, which have been on the lower end of the contender scale. The Town, however, is getting a big boost from the plaudits and praise throughout the industry. When someone as beloved and notable as Robert Duvall (who last year raved about Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker) goes nuts for The Town, it’s worth paying attention to. Clearly, this Boston-set crime drama has hit the right notes for enough voters that it won’t be too surprising if the film gets a few Oscar nominations. Whether they’re deserved is something we can debate after the fact, but don’t be shocked if it busts through as something of a dark horse.

The Screen Actors Guild has already nominated Black Swan, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, and The Social Network for its Best Ensemble award. The Cinema Audio Society, this past week, nominated Black Swan, Inception, Shutter Island, The Social Network, and True Grit for achievement in sound mixing. Sound mixing may seem like a bit of a niche category, but the people who vote in the sound mixing category represent the below-the-line voter whose votes can sometimes be as powerful, combined, as the actors’ vote in the Academy (the biggest single category of voters) is. The common elements are few, but important to note. Black Swan and The Social Network are the only two that show up throughout all of the aforementioned guilds, but True Grit, The Fighter, Inception, The King’s Speech, and The Kids Are All Right remain strong contenders.

So, what we’re left with is very few unsure things. Winter’s Bone, Blue Valentine, and Another Year, three independent films (two of which are still yet to open wide), are duking it out with 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right, and The Town to be among the Best Picture Oscar contenders. The more definite nominees - or the more presumed definite nominees - are The Social Network, The King’s Speech, Black Swan, The Fighter, True Grit, Inception, and Toy Story 3. Are these the best films you saw in 2010? Did you even see all of these 13 prospective nominees? I can admit that I have not seen Blue Valentine and Another Year, for not having opened near me yet. Though there are a couple of other hopefuls - Rabbit Hole, which may garner Nicole Kidman another acting nomination - these are the films that may get nominated, by looking at the guilds.

There’s still time to wonder what kind of year in film 2010 was, if we like to define it by the Oscars and who wins and loses. The themes that stuck out this year was characters not discerning reality from fantasy, and ambition, behind and in front of the screen. Even now, when I become more and more disillusioned with the process of the Oscars, I’m somewhat glad to know that the films I love are being validated by the Academy. My top five films of the year - in order, Black Swan, Inception, Toy Story 3, The Social Network, and True Grit - are all likely nominees, and three of them have a very, very good shot of winning big at the Oscar ceremony. (Worthless points to you if you figure out which ones I mean.)

But, as it always goes, looking at the new year of movies seems a bit disheartening. Maybe that’s the best part of the Oscar season extending into the new year; you can ignore new movies like Season of the Witch and The Dilemma, and focus more on the past. As we await the winners of the yearly Golden Globes and the Directors Guild nominations - both occurring this week - take some time on the forthcoming long weekend and watch a movie from 2010 that you loved. Even if that movie wasn’t an Oscar hopeful, watch it and remember what you loved from this year. That’s what the Oscars should be for; it only works if we actually remember to honor our personal favorites. The Oscars, as much as we may obsess over them, aren’t going to give us that satisfaction.

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