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Today is the day when the Oscar season kicks into high gear. The Writers Guild of America and the Producers Guild of America will be announcing their nominees by the end of the day, thus making the guesswork a little less fruitless. A few films are so far ahead of the pack that their appearance in either guild’s nominees are just about guaranteed. It says more about the Writers Guild if we don’t see Aaron Sorkin’s name among the nominees than if we do. The Producers Guild will announce ten nominees for Best Picture, thus offering us a potential group of Oscar nominees in the same category. In the meantime, very little has changed among the nominees, but some films are showing themselves as more threatening than others. Whether or not The Social Network or The King’s Speech will be upset, a lot of movies are fighting for that right.

But there are frontrunners in every category this year, as there are most years. It’d be nice to tell you that this year’s ceremony will be full of surprises, but as of right now, there are either completely foregone conclusions or two-person or two-movie fights. As mentioned previously, the Best Picture category, most likely, comes down to The Social Network and The King’s Speech. There are many strong films that may get nominated this year, from the big – Inception - to the scrappy underdog - The Fighter - but they’re all chasing Mark Zuckerberg and the King of England. True Grit and Black Swan, in particular, have snuck up at the box office and dominated in various ways by staying consistent throughout the entire holiday season. The former has a stronger shot at sneaking in as a third rival, what with it being a Western, but both have ardent supporters in the industry.

Each year, one of the predominant themes for the Oscars is “It’s [Insert name here]’s year.” When Jeff Bridges won the Best Actor Oscar last year for his performance in Crazy Heart, it was partly because of the work he did in the film, but it was also because a lot of people in the industry thought it was his year to win, after nearly 40 years in front of the camera. The year before, in the same category, the high-profile performer embodying this theme was Mickey Rourke, star of The Wrestler. Rourke lost to Sean Penn, but much of the buzz behind his performance came not just because we all love a comeback, but because Rourke had been a great actor when he was younger, and he might have had his turn to win Oscar gold. For this year, also in the same category, look at Colin Firth.

Firth, while being a young 50 years old (young for the Academy, at least), is likely going to get an Oscar nomination for his role in The King’s Speech. Firth has played a variety of characters, from hapless romantic leading men (Love Actually, Bridget Jones’ Diary) to characters in iconic British literature (Pride and Prejudice) and now, he’s finally playing the highest royal there is. Firth plays King Edward VI, hampered by a crippling stutter that he’s able to overcome with the help of an unorthodox speech therapist, played by previous Oscar winner Geoffrey Rush. Firth and Rush have believable chemistry throughout the film, and while it’s not my pick for Firth’s best work (though I’m not in love with the movie, A Single Man is my choice here), there’s no denying its power and why the Academy is in love with it.

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