In Contention
By Josh Spiegel
January 4, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
But there are frontrunners in every category this year, as there are most years. It’d be nice to tell you that this year’s ceremony will be full of surprises, but as of right now, there are either completely foregone conclusions or two-person or two-movie fights. As mentioned previously, the Best Picture category, most likely, comes down to The Social Network and The King’s Speech. There are many strong films that may get nominated this year, from the big – Inception - to the scrappy underdog - The Fighter - but they’re all chasing Mark Zuckerberg and the King of England. True Grit and Black Swan, in particular, have snuck up at the box office and dominated in various ways by staying consistent throughout the entire holiday season. The former has a stronger shot at sneaking in as a third rival, what with it being a Western, but both have ardent supporters in the industry.
Each year, one of the predominant themes for the Oscars is “It’s [Insert name here]’s year.” When Jeff Bridges won the Best Actor Oscar last year for his performance in Crazy Heart, it was partly because of the work he did in the film, but it was also because a lot of people in the industry thought it was his year to win, after nearly 40 years in front of the camera. The year before, in the same category, the high-profile performer embodying this theme was Mickey Rourke, star of The Wrestler. Rourke lost to Sean Penn, but much of the buzz behind his performance came not just because we all love a comeback, but because Rourke had been a great actor when he was younger, and he might have had his turn to win Oscar gold. For this year, also in the same category, look at Colin Firth.
Firth, while being a young 50 years old (young for the Academy, at least), is likely going to get an Oscar nomination for his role in The King’s Speech. Firth has played a variety of characters, from hapless romantic leading men (Love Actually, Bridget Jones’ Diary) to characters in iconic British literature (Pride and Prejudice) and now, he’s finally playing the highest royal there is. Firth plays King Edward VI, hampered by a crippling stutter that he’s able to overcome with the help of an unorthodox speech therapist, played by previous Oscar winner Geoffrey Rush. Firth and Rush have believable chemistry throughout the film, and while it’s not my pick for Firth’s best work (though I’m not in love with the movie, A Single Man is my choice here), there’s no denying its power and why the Academy is in love with it.
Firth lost last year, to Bridges, and this time, the prevailing wisdom is that it’s finally time for the Englishman to walk home a winner. In a bit of funny coincidence, it’s a very firm possibility that Bridges and Firth will go head to head once again this year, with Bridges getting a nod for his work in True Grit. While the film has done well with voters, Bridges’ performance is probably not going to get him two consecutive Oscars; it could happen, but I don’t think it’s going to. While Firth’s campaign isn’t as much of a veritable steamroller as the campaign for, say, Heath Ledger was in 2008, he’s the surest thing among the acting nominees. There are other intriguing match-ups (Annette Bening vs. Natalie Portman in Best Actress is my favorite example) this year, but Firth is almost guaranteed to win. Almost.
Another interesting category to look at is Best Director. With the majority of the likely Best Picture nominees having such sure hands behind the helm, this is a category where there will be plenty of people left out, just because a few other directors snuck in despite being equal to them. The nominee who’s got the “It’s my year” theme under their belt is David Fincher. As of today, he’s still the assumed victor, for his assured and typically stylish direction of The Social Network. Everyone else hoping to get nominated could easily not be given the nod. Tom Hooper, the director of The King’s Speech, is probably getting nominated, but the movie and the actors have the buzz, not Hooper’s flashy work. Christopher Nolan and Darren Aronofsky, for Inception and Black Swan, should get nods, but their work might divide the voters. In some ways, the reason why Fincher might win is simply because the vote will be split among the other nominees so clearly.
Something sad to consider is the very real likelihood that no female directors will get nominated the year after Kathryn Bigelow became the first woman to win in the category. The two most likely contenders are Debra Granik, director of Winter’s Bone, and Lisa Cholodenko, director of The Kids Are All Right. Both films have plenty of passion within the industry, but the discussion surrounding Winter’s Bone only focuses on Jennifer Lawrence, the film’s barely-out-of-her-teens lead. Lawrence is excellent in the film, but people have inadvertently ignored Granik’s work in creating the Ozarks as a noir setting. Cholodenko’s script, co-written with Stuart Blumberg, is getting more heat than her direction, and the high-profile performances remain the focal point of the film’s Oscar buzz. Now, since there are so many notable candidates (I haven’t even mentioned the 2008 winner, Danny Boyle), Granik and/or Cholodenko could sneak in. It’s just not very likely.
Fincher and Firth may end up winners this year just by being lucky. Both have been great in their respective fields for the past two decades (I will ignore Alien 3 and What a Girl Wants if you will); they just happened to get involved with the right projects at the right time. For all we know, next year, James Franco or Jesse Eisenberg (two presumed Best Actor nominees) could get a bigger role and walk home with a trophy. The same goes for Christopher Nolan (though don’t be surprised if he ends up like fellow Brits Stanley Kubrick and Alfred Hitchcock when all is said and done, and never wins). Winning the Oscars is just as much a game of chance as it a game of skill. You have to make a movie at the right time, with the right audiences, and the right supporters. Which movies this year are the right ones to the industry? The WGA and PGA may have tipped their hand today.