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Firth lost last year, to Bridges, and this time, the prevailing wisdom is that it’s finally time for the Englishman to walk home a winner. In a bit of funny coincidence, it’s a very firm possibility that Bridges and Firth will go head to head once again this year, with Bridges getting a nod for his work in True Grit. While the film has done well with voters, Bridges’ performance is probably not going to get him two consecutive Oscars; it could happen, but I don’t think it’s going to. While Firth’s campaign isn’t as much of a veritable steamroller as the campaign for, say, Heath Ledger was in 2008, he’s the surest thing among the acting nominees. There are other intriguing match-ups (Annette Bening vs. Natalie Portman in Best Actress is my favorite example) this year, but Firth is almost guaranteed to win. Almost.

Another interesting category to look at is Best Director. With the majority of the likely Best Picture nominees having such sure hands behind the helm, this is a category where there will be plenty of people left out, just because a few other directors snuck in despite being equal to them. The nominee who’s got the “It’s my year” theme under their belt is David Fincher. As of today, he’s still the assumed victor, for his assured and typically stylish direction of The Social Network. Everyone else hoping to get nominated could easily not be given the nod. Tom Hooper, the director of The King’s Speech, is probably getting nominated, but the movie and the actors have the buzz, not Hooper’s flashy work. Christopher Nolan and Darren Aronofsky, for Inception and Black Swan, should get nods, but their work might divide the voters. In some ways, the reason why Fincher might win is simply because the vote will be split among the other nominees so clearly.

Something sad to consider is the very real likelihood that no female directors will get nominated the year after Kathryn Bigelow became the first woman to win in the category. The two most likely contenders are Debra Granik, director of Winter’s Bone, and Lisa Cholodenko, director of The Kids Are All Right. Both films have plenty of passion within the industry, but the discussion surrounding Winter’s Bone only focuses on Jennifer Lawrence, the film’s barely-out-of-her-teens lead. Lawrence is excellent in the film, but people have inadvertently ignored Granik’s work in creating the Ozarks as a noir setting. Cholodenko’s script, co-written with Stuart Blumberg, is getting more heat than her direction, and the high-profile performances remain the focal point of the film’s Oscar buzz. Now, since there are so many notable candidates (I haven’t even mentioned the 2008 winner, Danny Boyle), Granik and/or Cholodenko could sneak in. It’s just not very likely.

Fincher and Firth may end up winners this year just by being lucky. Both have been great in their respective fields for the past two decades (I will ignore Alien 3 and What a Girl Wants if you will); they just happened to get involved with the right projects at the right time. For all we know, next year, James Franco or Jesse Eisenberg (two presumed Best Actor nominees) could get a bigger role and walk home with a trophy. The same goes for Christopher Nolan (though don’t be surprised if he ends up like fellow Brits Stanley Kubrick and Alfred Hitchcock when all is said and done, and never wins). Winning the Oscars is just as much a game of chance as it a game of skill. You have to make a movie at the right time, with the right audiences, and the right supporters. Which movies this year are the right ones to the industry? The WGA and PGA may have tipped their hand today.

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