Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

July 22, 2008

Hey Josh! What place did you finish in?

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And the Oscar goes to...

Kim Hollis: Do you think that The Dark Knight's record shattering performance gives it a chance at a Best Picture nomination and what odds do you give of Heath Ledger earning a posthumous nomination for his sublime performance as The Joker?

Pete Kilmer: I think a nomination is a lock for Ledger for Best Supporting Actor and the fact this movie made a gazillion dollars this weekend can only help people remember when it comes time for the nominations as they are a long way away. I do think Nolan might have a shot at Best Director and the movie for Best Picture.

Max Braden: Ledger is a likely nominee, but winning is questionable. I wonder if there will be any voter hesitation because he is deceased, as if survivor guilt might make them feel like a vote for him would be disrespectfully jumping on the bandwagon. I wouldn't be surprised if the Academy Awards had a special tribute segment. I'd be surprised if the movie gets a Best Picture nomination though it has the length but not quite the epic feel of the Lord of the Rings movies. Maybe once the third installment comes out, which may also be when Nolan gets his statue.

Shane Jenkins: I agree with Pete about Ledger, but I think the movie's phenomenal success will work against it in a race for Best Picture. The Academy, with a few exceptions, likes to nominate films that will benefit from their attention. The Dark Knight needs no such help, and besides, Wall-E has dibs on being the summer's Best Pic choice, at least if the Rotten Tomato-meter is any indication.

David Mumpower: Given how difficult predicting the Oscars nominees is the day before they're announced, making such a projection in July before dozens of contenders have been released is, well, dartboard analysis. Keeping that in mind, my darts say that Heath Ledger is 2:3 to get an Academy Awards nomination, becoming the seventh person to do so. Unfortunately, he will be mad as Hell about the fact that he will not join Peter Finch by becoming the second person posthumously awarded an Oscar for acting. With regards to The Dark Knight, I anecdotally pieced together the fact that The Bourne Ultimatum was in the running for a Best Picture nod last year. So, never say never on The Dark Knight, but I think the odds are about 30-1 right now. Those long odds grow more reasonable if a lot of the end-of-year contenders such as Revolutionary Road, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Changeling and Frost/Nixon all disappoint.


Tim Briody: Supporting actor is a considerably less obvious category than the lead acting awards especially this far out when we're all just guessing, but I'd feel confident putting money down on Ledger getting a nomination. I wouldn't go ahead and say he'd win, yet, though I reserve the right to change this opinion at any time.

Joel Corcoran: I think everyone will be surprised when both Heath Ledger and Robert Downey Jr. receive best actor nods in the Oscar nominations. But I don't think The Dark Knight will earn even a nomination for best picture. It's a fantastic film, but like Max said, it just doesn't have the epic feel to it (like Lord of the Rings, Gladiator, or Braveheart).

Brandon Scott: As for Ledger's performance earning a Supporting Actor nomination, "put it in the books and send him to the line." It's happening. As for a Best Picture nom, too early to tell, but its certainly got a shot. It would make the list if the Oscar race was over today.

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