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Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

July 22, 2008

Hey Josh! What place did you finish in?

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Domestically, I like its chances but it's far from a foregone conclusion. Spider-Man 3 fell $67 million short. Is The Dark Knight going to have that much staying power? It could, but I certainly would not guarantee it. The glowing reviews, A Cinemascore and word-of-mouth are huge, but it still needs $240 million from here on out. That's $35 million more than Batman Begins earned domestically.

Tim Briody: The box office just isn't that kind of animal anymore. As Max alluded to earlier, there was sort of a perfect storm here with Heath Ledger's death and absolutely sublime marketing, so we're probably looking at one of the most inflated box office weekends ever. Yes, it's already well over a third of the way there, but there are so many one and done films these days that it takes something truly special. $400 million ain't happening.

Pete Kilmer: Looking at the next two weeks we've got X-files2 and the week after that Mummy3. The week AFTER Mummy3 it's pretty free and clear of serious action movies (ok maybe Babylon AD). It can do it.

Daron Aldridge: Some people, me included, intentionally didn't see it this weekend to avoid the crowd. (Wednesday night can't get here quick enough.) So, there is still a fresh audience out there as well as the repeat viewers. It just needs this weekend's figure to be about 38% of its total to hit $400 million. In fact, America, prove that I low-balled this figure and see the Dark Knight multiple times, in order to dethrone Titanic's domestic record o $600 million.

A billion worldwide seems highly unlikely based on the international grosses for previous 5 Batman movies were 64%, 74%, 82%, 121%, and 80% respectively of the domestic grosses. Dark Knight would need over $450 million domestically as well as Batman and Robin's anomaly of 121% of its worldwide gross to come from overseas to hit the billion mark. Again, unlikely but awesome if it happens. Seriously, what were international audiences thinking with Batman and Robin?




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Jamie Ruccio: Put me in the "Not Sure" category as well. It wouldn't surprise me to see traditional Summer and fantastically rabid fanbase type movie drop offs in the typical 50+ percent.

However, it does have some advantages. The critical reception is very positive. I think it's also very well received by the public. Throw in the not so quiet talk of Oscars (and if that happens would we get a release around Oscar time?) I think $400 million is achievable.

Sean Collier: I'm going to go ahead and say "Titanic is in trouble" just so I look like a genius if that actually turns out to be true. Hyperbole, sure, but then again - this is a film that could hit $200 Million in its fifth or sixth day of release, which makes anything possible in my book. $400 Million domestic and $1 Billion world are foregone conclusions - if Indiana Jones 4 can hit $310, The Dark Knight can hit $400 - and, with phenomenal word of mouth, incessant repeat viewings, and a huge demographic, who knows how far it can go.

Scott Lumley: Yes and Yes. At One Hundred Fifty Five million, it's already 40% of 400 million. I also think this has a shot at Titanic's record actually.

David Mumpower: Beat Titanic? Bartender, it's time to cut those two off.


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