Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
July 22, 2008
Domestically, I like its chances but it's far from a foregone conclusion. Spider-Man 3 fell $67 million short. Is The Dark Knight going to have that much staying power? It could, but I certainly would not guarantee it. The glowing reviews, A Cinemascore and word-of-mouth are huge, but it still needs $240 million from here on out. That's $35 million more than Batman Begins earned domestically.
Tim Briody: The box office just isn't that kind of animal anymore. As Max alluded to earlier, there was sort of a perfect storm here with Heath Ledger's death and absolutely sublime marketing, so we're probably looking at one of the most inflated box office weekends ever. Yes, it's already well over a third of the way there, but there are so many one and done films these days that it takes something truly special. $400 million ain't happening.
Pete Kilmer: Looking at the next two weeks we've got X-files2 and the week after that Mummy3. The week AFTER Mummy3 it's pretty free and clear of serious action movies (ok maybe Babylon AD). It can do it.
Daron Aldridge: Some people, me included, intentionally didn't see it this weekend to avoid the crowd. (Wednesday night can't get here quick enough.) So, there is still a fresh audience out there as well as the repeat viewers. It just needs this weekend's figure to be about 38% of its total to hit $400 million. In fact, America, prove that I low-balled this figure and see the Dark Knight multiple times, in order to dethrone Titanic's domestic record o $600 million.
A billion worldwide seems highly unlikely based on the international grosses for previous 5 Batman movies were 64%, 74%, 82%, 121%, and 80% respectively of the domestic grosses. Dark Knight would need over $450 million domestically as well as Batman and Robin's anomaly of 121% of its worldwide gross to come from overseas to hit the billion mark. Again, unlikely but awesome if it happens. Seriously, what were international audiences thinking with Batman and Robin?
Jamie Ruccio: Put me in the "Not Sure" category as well. It wouldn't surprise me to see traditional Summer and fantastically rabid fanbase type movie drop offs in the typical 50+ percent.
However, it does have some advantages. The critical reception is very positive. I think it's also very well received by the public. Throw in the not so quiet talk of Oscars (and if that happens would we get a release around Oscar time?) I think $400 million is achievable.
Sean Collier: I'm going to go ahead and say "Titanic is in trouble" just so I look like a genius if that actually turns out to be true. Hyperbole, sure, but then again - this is a film that could hit $200 Million in its fifth or sixth day of release, which makes anything possible in my book. $400 Million domestic and $1 Billion world are foregone conclusions - if Indiana Jones 4 can hit $310, The Dark Knight can hit $400 - and, with phenomenal word of mouth, incessant repeat viewings, and a huge demographic, who knows how far it can go.
Scott Lumley: Yes and Yes. At One Hundred Fifty Five million, it's already 40% of 400 million. I also think this has a shot at Titanic's record actually.
David Mumpower: Beat Titanic? Bartender, it's time to cut those two off.