Now Playing: Weekend Box Office
October 26, 2006
In the last three weeks, I've written about "horror fatigue" in the marketplace, and I strongly believe that is one of the reasons that Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning (New Line) and The Grudge 2 (Sony) have both scored lower-than-expected box office figures. This weekend, Saw III (Lionsgate) hits the multiplex and the question is whether Jigsaw will fall prey to the same lack of enthusiasm.
The 2003 Texas Chainsaw Massacre did $28 million on opening weekend and $80 million in its theatrical release compared to $18 million October 6th - 8th and a $36 million cumulative number this month. The first Grudge film opened to a $39 million weekend on its way to $110 million domestic while the sequel started with a $20 million three-day and just $31 in its first 12 days of release.
I spoke to Lionsgate distribution head Steve Rothenberg this week, and he is absolutely confident that Saw III will match or beat the opening weekend for the last film. What's different? "We have a better film. The feedback is that Chainsaw and Grudge 2 aren't as good as the previous films. Our research says that Saw III is the best film in the series."
There are other factors that point to an opening weekend better than Saw II's $31.7 million last October. First off, Rothenberg tells me "the tracking is fantastic." In fact, over 20% of Males Under 25 and Females Under 25 say that Saw III is their First Choice at the movies this weekend. Even Over 25 Males have a First Choice number in the double digits. Secondly, there are 5,000 prints out there as compared to 4,000 for Saw II. Finally, Jigsaw has the weekend to himself facing off with only Catch A Fire and the expansion of Running With Scissors. In 2005, the first sequel shared the marketplace with The Legend of Zorro, which scored a $16 million opening weekend.
For my money, the first Saw is the most original horror film of the decade. Leigh Whannell and James Wan created a twisted, sadistic premise that is not for the squeamish. They took a step back with the less enthralling Saw II, but I am a fan and will see III on opening weekend.
As for Jigsaw, he will become one of the Top 5 "Franchise Killers" of all-time, almost certain to pass Texas Chainsaw's Leatherface to move into the #5 spot behind Michael Myers, Freddy Krueger, Jason and everybody's favorite psycho Hannibal Lecter. It could happen as soon as this weekend because I'm forecasting that Saw III will do $32-$35 million.
Saw 3 (Lions Gate) By The Numbers
Top 5 Horror Films of 2006 – Domestic Box Office
1. Scary Movie 4 - $90,710,000
2. Monster House - $73,661,000
3. Underworld: Evolution - $62,318,000
4. The Omen - $54,607,000
5. Final Destination 3 - $54,098,000
Top 5 Horror Film Opening Weekends of 2006 – Domestic Box Office
1. Scary Movie 4 - $40,222,000
2. Underworld: Evolution - $26,857,000
3. Monster House - $22,217,000
4. When A Stranger Calls - $21,607,000
5. The Grudge 2 - $20,825,000
All-Time Top 5 Horror Sequels – Domestic Box Office
1. Hannibal - $165,092,000
2. Scary Movie 3 - $110,003,000
3. Scream 2 - $101,363,000
4. Scary Movie 4 - $90,710,000
5. Scream 3 - $89,143,000
All-Time Top 5 Franchise Killers – Cumulative Domestic Box Office
1. Hannibal Lecter – 5 movies - $397,603,000
2. Jason (Friday the Thirteenth) – 9 movies - $349,937,000
3. Freddy Krueger (Nightmare On Elm Street) – 8 movies - $307,420,000
4. Michael Myers (Halloween) – 8 movies - $216,854,000
5. Leatherface (Texas Chainsaw Massacre) – 7 movies - $161,570,000
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