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I have previously documented just how tough 2006 has been for Focus Features. After an amazing 2005 with Brokeback Mountain, Pride & Prejudice, The Constant Gardener, Broken Flowers and assorted other specialty successes, Focus can't buy a hit this year. Everything Universal's specialty arm has released has flopped, from Brick to Scoop to Hollywoodland.

This weekend, Focus has an especially ambitious release with Catch A Fire opening on 1,200 screens. From Director Phillip Noyce, it's an Apartheid story starring Oscar winner Tim Robbins and Derek Luke (Antwone Fisher).

Noyce is an interesting director with a somewhat split personality. He has big blockbuster films on his resume like Clear & Present Danger, Patriot Games, The Bone Collector and The Saint, but he also has smaller, more personal projects like Rabbit-Proof Fence ($6 million domestic) and The Quiet American ($13 million domestic). This appears to be one of his small movies, but Focus, perhaps desperate for a hit, is handling it like a blockbuster in a traditional wide release pattern.

If Catch A Fire were to be platformed, it would get a chance to build with solid reviews and a nice slow expansion. Instead, industry tracking indicates that it will open on 1,200 screens this weekend and disappear in a few weeks. Derek Luke is a potential Best Actor nominee for his role, but Focus' decision to open wide will hurt his chances.

For the record, I was originally going to open Catch A Fire at my Cinemas Palme d'Or ( www.ThePalme.com) property in Rancho Mirage/Palm Desert, but the limited commercial upside, soft tracking and a shortage of screens forced me to pass. Instead, we are opening Miramax's The Queen on three screens. Stephen Frears' remarkable portrait of Elizabeth II is generating incredible per screen averages everywhere it plays.

The bottom line is that it's another misfire for Focus. Catch A Fire will generate only $2-$5 million.

Catch A Fire (Focus Features) By The Numbers

Top 5 Phillip Noyce-Directed Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Clear & Present Danger - $122,187,000
2. Patriot Games - $83,351,000
3. The Bone Collector - $66,518,000
4. The Saint - $61,363,000
5. Sliver - $36,300,000

Top 10 Tim Robbins Films - Domestic Box Office

1. Twister - $241,721,000
2. Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me - $206,040,000
3. Mystic River - $90,135,000
4. War of the Worlds - $86,888,000
5. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy - $85,288,000
6. Bull Durham - $50,888,000
7. Jungle Fever - $32,482,000
8. Zathura: A Space Adventure - $29,230,000
9. The Shawshank Redemption - $28,341,000
10. Cadillac Man - $27,627,000

Top 5 Derek Luke Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Friday Night Lights - $61,255,000
2. Glory Road - $42,647,000
3. Biker Boyz - $22,076,000
4. Antwone Fisher - $21,078,000
5. Spartan - $4,434,000

Top 5 Movies About Apartheid - Domestic Box Office
1. Cry Freedom - $5,899,000
2. Dangerous Ground - $5,303,000
3. A Dry White Season - $3,766,000
4. The Power of One - $2,827,000
5. A World Apart - $2,326,000

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