Now Playing: Weekend Box Office
October 26, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The 2003 Texas Chainsaw Massacre did $28 million on opening weekend and $80 million in its theatrical release compared to $18 million October 6th - 8th and a $36 million cumulative number this month. The first Grudge film opened to a $39 million weekend on its way to $110 million domestic while the sequel started with a $20 million three-day and just $31 in its first 12 days of release.
I spoke to Lionsgate distribution head Steve Rothenberg this week, and he is absolutely confident that Saw III will match or beat the opening weekend for the last film. What's different? "We have a better film. The feedback is that Chainsaw and Grudge 2 aren't as good as the previous films. Our research says that Saw III is the best film in the series."
There are other factors that point to an opening weekend better than Saw II's $31.7 million last October. First off, Rothenberg tells me "the tracking is fantastic." In fact, over 20% of Males Under 25 and Females Under 25 say that Saw III is their First Choice at the movies this weekend. Even Over 25 Males have a First Choice number in the double digits. Secondly, there are 5,000 prints out there as compared to 4,000 for Saw II. Finally, Jigsaw has the weekend to himself facing off with only Catch A Fire and the expansion of Running With Scissors. In 2005, the first sequel shared the marketplace with The Legend of Zorro, which scored a $16 million opening weekend.
For my money, the first Saw is the most original horror film of the decade. Leigh Whannell and James Wan created a twisted, sadistic premise that is not for the squeamish. They took a step back with the less enthralling Saw II, but I am a fan and will see III on opening weekend.
As for Jigsaw, he will become one of the Top 5 "Franchise Killers" of all-time, almost certain to pass Texas Chainsaw's Leatherface to move into the #5 spot behind Michael Myers, Freddy Krueger, Jason and everybody's favorite psycho Hannibal Lecter. It could happen as soon as this weekend because I'm forecasting that Saw III will do $32-$35 million.
Saw 3 (Lions Gate) By The Numbers
Top 5 Horror Films of 2006 – Domestic Box Office
1. Scary Movie 4 - $90,710,000
2. Monster House - $73,661,000
3. Underworld: Evolution - $62,318,000
4. The Omen - $54,607,000
5. Final Destination 3 - $54,098,000
Top 5 Horror Film Opening Weekends of 2006 – Domestic Box Office
1. Scary Movie 4 - $40,222,000
2. Underworld: Evolution - $26,857,000
3. Monster House - $22,217,000
4. When A Stranger Calls - $21,607,000
5. The Grudge 2 - $20,825,000
All-Time Top 5 Horror Sequels – Domestic Box Office
1. Hannibal - $165,092,000
2. Scary Movie 3 - $110,003,000
3. Scream 2 - $101,363,000
4. Scary Movie 4 - $90,710,000
5. Scream 3 - $89,143,000
All-Time Top 5 Franchise Killers – Cumulative Domestic Box Office
1. Hannibal Lecter – 5 movies - $397,603,000
2. Jason (Friday the Thirteenth) – 9 movies - $349,937,000
3. Freddy Krueger (Nightmare On Elm Street) – 8 movies - $307,420,000
4. Michael Myers (Halloween) – 8 movies - $216,854,000
5. Leatherface (Texas Chainsaw Massacre) – 7 movies - $161,570,000
I have previously documented just how tough 2006 has been for Focus Features. After an amazing 2005 with Brokeback Mountain, Pride & Prejudice, The Constant Gardener, Broken Flowers and assorted other specialty successes, Focus can't buy a hit this year. Everything Universal's specialty arm has released has flopped, from Brick to Scoop to Hollywoodland.
This weekend, Focus has an especially ambitious release with Catch A Fire opening on 1,200 screens. From Director Phillip Noyce, it's an Apartheid story starring Oscar winner Tim Robbins and Derek Luke (Antwone Fisher).
Noyce is an interesting director with a somewhat split personality. He has big blockbuster films on his resume like Clear & Present Danger, Patriot Games, The Bone Collector and The Saint, but he also has smaller, more personal projects like Rabbit-Proof Fence ($6 million domestic) and The Quiet American ($13 million domestic). This appears to be one of his small movies, but Focus, perhaps desperate for a hit, is handling it like a blockbuster in a traditional wide release pattern.
If Catch A Fire were to be platformed, it would get a chance to build with solid reviews and a nice slow expansion. Instead, industry tracking indicates that it will open on 1,200 screens this weekend and disappear in a few weeks. Derek Luke is a potential Best Actor nominee for his role, but Focus' decision to open wide will hurt his chances.
For the record, I was originally going to open Catch A Fire at my Cinemas Palme d'Or ( www.ThePalme.com) property in Rancho Mirage/Palm Desert, but the limited commercial upside, soft tracking and a shortage of screens forced me to pass. Instead, we are opening Miramax's The Queen on three screens. Stephen Frears' remarkable portrait of Elizabeth II is generating incredible per screen averages everywhere it plays.
The bottom line is that it's another misfire for Focus. Catch A Fire will generate only $2-$5 million.
Catch A Fire (Focus Features) By The Numbers
Top 5 Phillip Noyce-Directed Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Clear & Present Danger - $122,187,000
2. Patriot Games - $83,351,000
3. The Bone Collector - $66,518,000
4. The Saint - $61,363,000
5. Sliver - $36,300,000
Top 10 Tim Robbins Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Twister - $241,721,000
2. Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me - $206,040,000
3. Mystic River - $90,135,000
4. War of the Worlds - $86,888,000
5. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy - $85,288,000
6. Bull Durham - $50,888,000
7. Jungle Fever - $32,482,000
8. Zathura: A Space Adventure - $29,230,000
9. The Shawshank Redemption - $28,341,000
10. Cadillac Man - $27,627,000
Top 5 Derek Luke Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Friday Night Lights - $61,255,000
2. Glory Road - $42,647,000
3. Biker Boyz - $22,076,000
4. Antwone Fisher - $21,078,000
5. Spartan - $4,434,000
Top 5 Movies About Apartheid - Domestic Box Office
1. Cry Freedom - $5,899,000
2. Dangerous Ground - $5,303,000
3. A Dry White Season - $3,766,000
4. The Power of One - $2,827,000
5. A World Apart - $2,326,000
Also this week, the mental illness comedy Running With Scissors expands to 600 locations, and it will likely deliver a very healthy per screen average.
Based on the memoir by Augusten Burroughs, Scissors is directed by Nip/Tuck creator Rian Murphy and boasts a cast that includes Annette Bening, Alec Baldwin, Brian Cox, Evan Rachel Wood, Jill Clayburg, Gwyneth Paltrow and Joseph Fiennes. The reviews are decidedly mixed and tilting toward the negative, but I think of it as an inspired, often-funny mess of a film.
Annette Bening is one of my very favorite actors, and, had Hilary Swank never been born, she might be a two-time Best Actress winner. Bening's performances in American Beauty and Being Julia were beaten at the Oscars by Swank's performances in Boys Don't Cry and Million Dollar Baby. This year, Bening won't win (Helen Mirren is a lock), but she is an almost-certain nominee for this over-the-top and ultimately sympathetic performance as Augusten's bi-polar mother.
Brian Cox is also brilliant as the highly unorthodox shrink at the center of the film's universe, and he's a strong bet for either a Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor nomination. He has long been one of the world's inest actors with emorable turns as the first Hannibal Lecter (in Michael Mann's Manhunter) and as a child molester with a heart of gold in L.I.E.. Jill Clayburg, a Best Supporting Actress possibility, gives the film a third award-worthy performance.
It's far from perfect and a little long, but Running With Scissors has some fascinating performances and very funny moments. Despite being on just 600 screens, it should score $2-$4 million this weekend.
Running with Scissors (Sony) – By The Numbers
Top 5 Annette Bening Films – Domestic Box Office
1. American Beauty - $130,096,000
2. The American President - $60,079,000
3. Open Range - $58,331,000
4. Bugsy - $49,114,000
5. Regarding Henry - $43,001,000
Top 10 Alec Baldwin Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Pearl Harbor - $198,542,000
2. The Hunt For Red October - $122,012,000
3. Fun With Dick & Jane - $110,332,000
4. The Aviator - $102,610,000
5. The Cat In the Hat - $101,145,000
6. Along Came Polly - $88,097,000
7. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie - $85,417,000
8. Beetle Juice - $73,707,000
9. Working Girl - $63,779,000
10. The Royal Tenenbaums - $52,364,000
Top 10 Brian Cox Films – Domestic Box Office
1. X2 - $214,949,000
2. The Bourne Supremacy - $176,241,000
3. Troy - $133,378,000
4. The Ring - $129,128,000
5. The Bourne Identity - $121,661,000
6. Braveheart - $75,609,000
7. The Rookie - $75,600,000
8. Kiss the Girls - $60,527,000
9. Red Eye - $57,891,000
10. For Love of the Game - $35,188,000
Top 5 Movies About Mental Illness – Domestic Box Office
1. A Beautiful Mind - $170,742,000
2. Fatal Attraction - $156,645,000
3. As Good As It Gets - $148,478,000
4. One Flew Over the Cukoo's Nest - $108,091,000
5. The Aviator - $102,610,000
Also this weekend, in limited release:
Death of A President (NewMarket Films) – 91 screens
Conversations With God (IDP Films) – 65 screens
Babel (Paramount Vantage) – 7 screens
Shut Up & Sing (The Weinstein Company) – 4 screens
Cocaine Cowboys (Magnolia) – 12 screens
Deliver Us From Evil (Lions Gate) – Expands to 21 screens
Infamous (Warner Independent) – Expands to 136 screens
Here are the weekend box office projections from your humble columnist and
independent theatre owner:
1. Saw III - $34 million
2. The Departed - $8.5 million
3. The Prestige - $8 million
4. Flags of Our Fathers - $7.5 million
5. Open Season - $6 million
*Catch a Fire - $3 million
*Running With Scissors - $2 million