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Steve Mason is a Los Angeles-based talk show host for 710 ESPN Radio. He has previously hosted the nationally-syndicated "The Late, Late Radio Show with Tom Snyder & Steve Mason" for CBS Radio and worked the last five Olympic Games for NBC and Westwood One Radio Network. He is also President of Flagship Theatres which owns the University Village Theatres near downtown Los Angeles (www.FlagshipMovies.com) and Cinemas Palme d'Or in Palm Desert, California (www.ThePalme.com).

In the wake of Captain Jack Sparrow and mega-hit Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Hollywood has faltered. As forecast here a week ago, You, Me & Dupree (Universal) is, at best, a terrible disappointment, and, a soft weekend will make it a bomb. Little Man (Sony) finished second last weekend, and it's a big hit with under-25 males, but this weekend's drop-off will be steep. Now along comes a quartet of new titles, three of which have serious problems.

First up is M. Night Shyamalan's Lady In the Water which has been in trouble for months at Warner Bros. Test screenings have been disastrous, reviews are coming in bad-to-awful and, generally speaking, it reeks of directorial self-indulgence. Shyamalan says this film is based on a bedtime story that he used to tell his kids. That makes sense since it is likely to put audiences to sleep all over the country.

It will open. The $50 million that Warner Bros. was once hoping for has vaporized, but the picture will still manage $25-$30 million. It may even unseat "Pirates" for this weekend's #1, but there is some deceit in the way this film is being marketed. From looking at the TV commercials and trailers, you'd think that this is a horror film. That accounts for the film's reported positive tracking among under-25 males and females. But there is no horror in the film. No big scares. This is a mystery, a puzzle, a film that requires some thought. Those under-25s looking for a scare will leave disappointed, and the word-of-mouth will be awful.

It's been a long time since The Sixth Sense, and The Village dissipated a lot of the film credibility and goodwill that Shyamalan had among film fans. After moviegoers are "burned" by another of his films, he is not going to get the benefit-of-the-doubt the next time around.

Lady In the Water By The Numbers

Top 5 M. Night Shyamalan Films - Domestic Box Office
1. The Sixth Sense - $293,506,000
2. Signs - $227,966,000
3. The Village - 114,197,000
4. Unbreakable - $95,011,000
5. Wide Awake - $282,175

Top 5 Paul Giamatti Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Saving Private Ryan - $216,540,000
2. Planet of the Apes - $180,011,000
3. My Best Friend's Wedding - $127,120,000
4. The Truman Show - $125,618,000
5. Big Momma's House - $117,559,000

Finally, an animated film without talking animals. Sony's Monster House hits multiplexes this weekend featuring the voices of Steve Buscemi, Catherine O'Hara, Fred Willard, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Jason Lee, Jon Heder, Kevin James. Kathleen Turner and Nick Cannon. It also boasts Steven Spielberg and Robert Zemeckis as producers.

Top 5 Animated Films of 2006 – Domestic Box Office
1. Cars - $221,090,000
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $194,657,000
3. Over the Hedge - $150,998,000
4. Hoodwinked - $51,386,000
5. The Wild - $36,574,000

Four of the top five animated films so far this year feature talking animals, and still to come are Ant Bully, Barnyard and Flushed Away. Monster House, for the record, is about a talking house. Animated films are tough to get a read on. I'm told that this film is no more than a blip in the most recent tracking, but the firms who do the tracking don't generally call six-year olds to ask what their first choice is for the coming movie weekend. Still, awareness among parents seems low.

I saw Monster House in a special advance screening last weekend, and, although kids over ten seemed generally entertained, more than a few of the under-tens were genuinely scared. Grown-ups (like me) aren't going to love this film. This is no Finding Nemo or Lion King or Toy Story with the ability to entertain adults or even 18-25s. All of this really limits how well the picture can perform. Zero buzz. Dark material perhaps too scary for the five- to ten-year-old set. Not smart enough for grown-ups and 18-25s. It's highly unlikely that Monster House tops $20 million, but, forecasting these animated titles is problematic at best.

Then there's Fox and My Super Ex-Girlfriend. We don't even need to wait for the exit polls. This is a bomb. It's a clever premise, but Ivan Reitman long ago lost touch with filmgoers. The word is that this film is a flatliner. I'm reminded of that scene in Pulp Fiction where Uma Thurman overdoses and Eric Stoltz and Rosanna Arquette need to revive her. Not even a shot of adrenaline to the heart can save this one, which has a chance to miss the weekend top five altogether.

My Super Ex-Girlfriend By The Numbers

Top 5 Ivan Reitman Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Ghostbusters - $229,242,000
2. Ghostbusters II - $112,494,000
3. Twins - $111,938,000
4. Kindergarten Cop - $91,457,000
5. Stripes - $85,297,000

Top 5 Uma Thurman Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Pulp Fiction - $107,928,000
2. Batman & Robin - $107,325,000
3. Kill Bill Vol. 1 - $70,099,000
4. Kill Bill Vol. 2 - $66,208,000
5. Be Cool - $56,046,000

Top 5 Luke Wilson Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Charlie's Angels - $125,305,000
2. Scream 2 - $101,363,000
3. Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle - $100,830,000
4. Legally Blonde $96,520,000
5. Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde - $90,186,000

Finally, there's good news for one of this weekend's openers. Kevin Smith's long-awaited Clerks II from The Weinstein Company/MGM is going to deliver. My sources tell me that it is tracking's First Choice among Under-25 males and Over-25 males, and it will score in the $14-$17 million range.

"Clerks 2" By The Numbers

Top 5 Kevin Smith Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Dogma - $30,652,000
2. Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back - $30,085,000
3. Jersey Girl - $25,268,000
4. Chasing Amy - $12,021,000
5. Clerks - $3,151,000

I suspect that Pirates will do just enough to hang onto the number one spot for the weekend with Lady In the Water a close second. Then comes Monster House followed by a strong showing by Clerks II and My Super Ex Girlfriend a distant fifth (but don't be surprised if You, Me and Dupree squeezes this Fox offering out of the top five).

King of the Micros?

Gary Rubin at First Independent Pictures has a very busy month. His upstart company is rolling out three movies in four weeks. That would be a daunting feat for a major distributor, but he's performing the feat with a small staff working long hours. FIP isn't a huge operation, but Rubin makes up for that with years of experience in the specialty film world and a real handle on the dynamics of "micro-distribution".

First Independent opened both Mini's First Time and David Mamet's Edmond last Friday (7/14), and the company significantly expands the subtle post-9/11 drama The Great New Wonderful this Friday (7/21).

Ten years ago, Rubin was at October Films as the company really took off. Emily Watson earned a Best Actress nomination for her work in Lars von Trier's Breaking the Waves, and Mike Leigh's innovative Secrets and Lies earned five Oscar nods including Best Picture. When October was gobbled up by Universal , he segued to Live Entertainment which later became Artisan. Rubin helped to strategize the release of films like Darren Aronofsky's Pi in 1998 and box office sensation The Blair Witch Project in 1999. Then consolidation struck again.

When Lionsgate acquired Artisan, Rubin could have stayed, but he opted to strike out on his own, founding First Independent Pictures about two and a half years ago. Prior to this very busy summer of '06, FIP released five films, including Doug Liman's Mail Order Wife and the critically-acclaimed doc New York Doll.

Arthur "Killer" Kane is profiled in Greg Whiteley's New York Doll, a finalist for the doc award at Sundance. Kane is a recovering alcoholic and converted Mormon who was given a chance to reunite with the legendary rock band after 30 years. "It's just a good movie," says Rubin. "If you're a music fan, it's a really good movie." With limited P&A (Prints and Advertising), it topped $200,000 domestic.

This is a challenging time for boutique distributors according to Rubin. Companies like his must be smarter than ever because of significant changes in the industry. Rubin believes that the marketplace began to change when The Sopranos debuted on HBO in 1999. "Suddenly, every cable channel had to have original programming," says Rubin. "We can no longer get a significant pay TV output deal, so we have to watch the P&A very closely." Then, NetFlix came along and forced Blockbuster to change its business model. Blockbuster eliminated its late fees and "they received as much as 25% of its revenue from late fees." Finally, Rubin asserts that there are just more films in release than there used to be. He says that the industry used to produce 500 films per year, but now that figure has risen to 600. Films can now be shot on video and edited on a home computer making it easier to make a movie. "This is the worst period for independent film since 1980," he says.

Additionally, the release window for these films in "microdistribution" has gotten smaller. "I'm afraid of October," Rubin says. This used to be an excellent month to launch a limited release, but last year the larger studio specialty distributors swamped arthouses with Capote (Sony Pictures Classics), The Squid and The Whale (IDP Films) and Good Night, and Good Luck (Warner Independent Pictures). He says the window for his movies is now mid-March through August.

Of his current titles, Rubin is most excited about Edmond written by David Mamet and directed by horror master Stuart Gordon ("Re-Animator"). With a cast including Oscar nominees William H. Macy and Joe Mantegna along with Julia Stiles, Mena Suvari, Denise Richards and Bai Ling, Edmond generated $10,000 per screen last weekend (7/14-16) opening at The Quad and The Lincoln Plaza in New York City.

Rubin is more than the distributor on this project. He co-produced Edmond and put the first money into the project. He loved Mamet's dark script and liked the idea of re-teaming him with Stuart Gordon, who directed the original Chicago production of Sexual Perversity in Chicago. The buzz for Edmond started at Telluride, where it was positioned as one of the most important films at the festival. Then both New York press screenings were 100% full. Rubin's intention was to open only at The Quad, but the Lincoln Plaza called the week before the opening to request a print.

"It's a polarizing film," he says. "There are people who love the film and people who like the film but are shaken up by it. Then there are people who are just shaken up by it." It will be critical to see how it holds up this weekend in New York. Next Friday (7/28), it is sure to open huge in Chicago with Windy City natives Mamet, Gordon, Macy and Mantegna.

Mini's First Time from writer/director Nick Guthe had a modest debut last Friday (7/14). With a cast including Oscar nominees Alec Baldwin and Jeff Goldblum, Carrie-Anne Moss from The Matrix and Thirteen writer/star Nikki Reed, this black comedy scored a $3,100 per screen average at seven locations on its opening weekend including $5,500 at The Arclight in Hollywood.

Rubin characterizes The Great New Wonderful as a "solid single" that he's hoping to "stretch into a double". He first saw the film at the 2005 Tribeca Film Festival and chased it for six months. When a deal with a larger distributor failed to materialize, he was able to finalize an agreement.

The Great New Wonderful has won some critical raves. New York Magazine calls it "The first great 9/11 film." This subtle meditation on life in New York one year after the 9/11 tragedy has an all-star cast including Olympia Dukakis, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Tony Shaloub, Edie Falco, Jim Gaffigan and Stephen Colbert. Based on a script by Sam Catlin, it is directed sensitively by Danny Lerner in spite of his previous feature film resume, which includes Dude, Where's My Car? and Harold and Kumar Go To White Castle.

First Independent opened this film at five locations in New York City, one in Boston and two in Washington, D.C. on June 23rd averaging just under $5,000 perscreen. In retrospect, Rubin thinks five locations in NYC was a little aggressive, but the film still generated $13,000 on that first weekend at The Angelika. In Boston, it scored $11,000 on the opening weekend at Kendall Square. This weekend (7/21), the film expands to LA, and FIP is hoping to ride positive reviews to solid numbers in Dallas, Chicago and Portland in coming weeks. $200,000 domestic is achievable prior to the DVD release on September 11.

Much of the country will have to wait to see Edmond, Mini's First Time and The Great New Wonderful on DVD, but these are unique projects with original points-of-view. With the dearth of intelligent films for grown-ups during the summer months, First Independent, along with other "micro-distribution" players like Palm, Magnolia, Shadow, Regent and Balcony, are salvation for cinephiles. If you're lucky enough to be in a town with an aggressive independent arthouse, count your blessings and support these titles.

In this challenging marketplace, only the players who operate smartly will survive. Expect Gary Rubin and First Independent Pictures to thrive.