June 2015 Box Office Forecast

By Michael Lynderey

June 4, 2015

Every department meeting ever.

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June will likely be the month with the fewest wide releases this year (seven), but that doesn't mean there isn't a whole lot of box office to be hauled in: we've got two designated big hitters, surrounded by a trio of comedies, and polished off with a horror sequel and a few indies with potential. And watch out for July, which will be very busy.

1. Inside Out (June 19th)
One of the year's two Pixar releases, along with The Good Dinosaur, a film whose plot will definitely be larger in scale than this story of mind-bending shenanigans. Pixar is a brand that's been watered down some during the last few years, but there's no question that they're still incredibly potent. Inside Out looks original and amusing in the way Pixar's fans seem to enjoy, and it will arrive in theaters after roughly a month without a viable new children's film option (especially considering what has transpired with Tomorrowland). There are no particular huge draws among the voice cast, but Pixar hasn’t focused on big names in many of their films. The single most important factor is one that is now the most known: the reviews, which have already rolled in and granted the film unreserved approval - 100% on RottenTomatoes, with exclamatory testimony (“the greatest idea the toon studio has ever had!”, declares Variety, though I still think that Pixar movie about the millionaire with an S&M fetish essentially had a more clever premise). Dissenters from the film's critical consensus may arrive in the next 14 or so days, but they will not be numerous, and their existence will do little to change the film's trajectory as a massive box office success.

Opening weekend: $77 million / Total gross: $299 million


2. Jurassic World (June 12th)
One of the big two bruisers at this month's box office sweepstakes. Jurassic World's existence is clearly evidence that time does indeed make the heart grow fonder, given how high some tracking reports have this 14-years-in-the-making sequel opening (over $100 million, shazam!). The original film was noted for its innovative special effects, but it's interesting how this series has survived at such a high level of prestige and financial respectability despite the fact that the movies were basically somewhat generic animal-run-amok slasher films (though done well). The trailer for this film does little to suggest the plot has grown any more complex. Jurassic World has been marketed and hyped for months, and its star, Chris Pratt, branded incessantly and excessively as the great new leading man, has a good chance to prove that declaration true here. Whatever other factors I consider in this prediction, though, I can't forget that Jurassic World is still just a film about angry dinosaurs eating people (as well as other dinosaurs this time around – cannibalism!), and that every previous Jurassic Park film has taken in less than its predecessor. Obviously, this one will turn the tide, but can it also part the sea?

Opening weekend: $94 million / Total gross: $275 million

3. Spy (June 5th)
It’s the third time out for one of the more successful director-actor pairings in modern Hollywood, star Melissa McCarthy and helmer Paul Feig, previously jointly responsible for both the very funny Bridesmaids and one of the best buddy-cop movies ever, The Heat. Unlike, say, Tomorrowland or Aloha, there’s not much speculation about the package we’re getting here: the film premiered at the SXSW festival in March, where it received overwhelmingly strong critical notices (and the Tomatometer has nary dropped a peg since). McCarthy doesn’t have a fellow big name star like Sandra Bullock to bolster the numbers here, but she should do just fine on her own. Among supporting actors, though, are Rose Byrne, also of Bridesmaids, Jude Law, prone now to some self-parody, and Jason Statham, who's transitioning from carrying B-movies into prominent supporting roles in mainstream Hollywood blockbusters like this and Furious 7. Spy may not reach the heights of Bridesmaids and The Heat, but it should have no problems becoming one of McCarthy's biggest and most liked films.

Opening weekend: $43 million / Total gross: $155 million

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