June 2015 Box Office Forecast
By Michael Lynderey
June 4, 2015
6. Entourage (June 3rd)
Opening on a Wednesday for no apparent reason, this is a somewhat belated adaptation of a show from the early days of the golden age of R-rated cable television. Reviews peg Entourage the movie as strictly for fans of the TV iteration, and so the main question is just how many potential audience members identify themselves as such. Star power is mixed: none of the series stars have broken out at the movies since the show's run, although the film contains a raft of hyped-at cameos. So far as I can see, the anticipation level here isn't nearly up to the likes of Sex and the City, so opening figures should be relatively modest. The presence of series backer Mark Wahlberg, also of Ted 2, might help give the film some credibility, but Entourage looks like a classic case of a property that has a big first three (or five) days, and then dips into single digits on weekend two.
Opening weekend: $22 million / Total gross: $51 million
Max is a nice story about a fallen war hero's dog and its return home to the United States. While of no discernible plot relation, I'm reminded of Fluke (1995), another June release named for, and starring, a dog. Max has the air of a feel-good, respectable, entertainment, and if the film gets good reviews, as it likely will (I'm counting on you!), it should have a decent run. With any luck at all, it could even outgross Entourage or some other chart hanger-oner that comes in below expectations. In a month of heavy-hitting, bit-ticket films, it certainly has a window to provide approachable counter-programming. And opening against the vulgarian teddy bear in Ted 2, there's little question that the sainted Max is the nobler animal!
Opening weekend: $12 million / Total gross: $45 million
8. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (June 12th, limited; wide later)
Arguably the month's wild card, Me and Earl was Sundance's big breakout film, winning two big awards and carrying home significant buzz. The unanimous critical acclamation means only good things, but it's tough to say if the nation’s teen audience will delve willingly into another film about a teenager with cancer so soon after The Fault in Our Stars became a sort of definitive take on the situation. Its leads, Thomas Mann and Olivia Cooke, are likable, and will both become very known very soon, but they're under-the-radar for most audiences. With almost no exceptions, it's still hard to get adults to see serious movies about teenagers. The Perks of Being a Wallflower and The Spectacular Now, two films this one recalls, are probably the closest comparisons, and neither broke out beyond an art-house hit. The film's summer release slot does somewhat recall that of another Sundance favorite, Garden State, in 2004, but that film had a name star (Natalie Portman) and appealed more easily to twentysomethings. Let's see if they give Earl a chance (a similar but somewhat lower box office forecast could be made for Dope, another Sundance favorite about teenagers that's rolling out, probably wide, this June).
Total gross: $15 million