June 2015 Box Office Forecast

By Michael Lynderey

June 4, 2015

Every department meeting ever.

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4. Ted 2 (June 26th)
“Ted is coming, again,” announces the film’s poster, in what I can only surmise is an attempt at a double entendre. Ted 2 is chronologically the last of this month’s sequels, and the one whose prospects I’m most unsure about. The first film was so very big in a rather unexpected manner, and a whole lot of people seem to have enjoyed viewing it, but I'm not sure that its success has fully paid for this sequel's meal ticket. It just seems to me like the shine has gone from the big-screen Seth MacFarlane brand, between the mixed reception of his Oscars hosting and the mildly underrated A Million Ways to Die in the West underperforming last summer. Will the Ted sequel outgross MacFarlane's western? Surely yes. But I think the film will come in significantly under the first one, especially considering star Mark Wahlberg may be spreading the wealth this month by lending his name to Entourage, while co-star Mila Kunis is completely absent this time. I could be low-balling Ted 2 – lord knows I underestimated Ted 1 by well over $100 million dollars - but something nags at me too strongly to ignore.

Opening weekend: $38 million / Total gross: $103 million


5. Insidious: Chapter 3 (June 5th)
Over the last few years, the Insidious films have quietly (almost insidiously) built themselves up into just about the only horror series that's still active and kicking at the box office (Paranormal Activity, its fellow traveler in ghost-themed terror, is in a bit of a rut). Insidious 2 had one of the great frontloaded horror movie performances, opening to $40 million and finishing with $83 million. That film's huge first weekend was awarded to it not only because of the nascent popularity of the first Insidious, but also by the breakout success of The Conjuring, which had the same director and star (James Wan and Patrick Wilson, respectively), and had opened to much fanfare just two months earlier (strictly speaking, The Conjuring’s success could be credited to the goodwill from the first Insidious, so this is one long chain).

Insidious 2 wasn't as beloved as the other Wan ghost films, and neither Wan nor Wilson are back for this prequel, other than producing credits for the former. Releasing a horror movie in June is still a relative rarity, but there's something that feels right about this endeavor, and the Insidious 3 marketing campaign, which has been lengthy and persistent, also feels particularly astute, memorable, and precisely on target. The Insidious name is still strong, but expect another frontloader, for sure.

Opening weekend: $37 million / Total gross: $75 million

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