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Weekend Forecast for July 20-22, 2012

By Reagen Sulewski

July 20, 2012

She got half the Bat vehicles in the divorce.

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While The Dark Knight Rises can't count on 3D screens to help boost its box office like The Avengers, it does still have the IMAX money to look forward to. Over an hour of the film was shot in that format and should boost the returns from those screens, though they don't make up as big a portion as 3D screenings typically do for event films. At 4,404 venues, will it be enough to challenge the $207 million of Avengers?

My guess is that it won't, as those 3D prices were almost certainly the deciding factor in getting it that high and with the more dour nature of the Batman franchise, the casual viewer will be tougher to bring in than for the bright and shiny Avengers. If there's a chance to do it, it's because of the finality, though. With all this build up, I predict an opening weekend of $181 million.

We look way, way down for second place, which is likely to belong to Ice Age: Continental Drift. The animated film opened to $46.6 million last weekend, more or less on par for the franchise, though domestically it remains a bit of an afterthought. Almost $350 million has gone into its coffers overseas already, the third highest total of the year. Part of that dichotomy is due to it having opened three or four weeks ago in some territories, but the 1:3 (or greater) is likely to stick around. Give it $26 million domestically this weekend, but watch it work its way to close to $1 billion worldwide.

The Amazing Spider-Man had an okay second weekend, dropping 44% and crossing the $200 million milestone, but did we really think this film was going to be such an afterthought already? And how strange might it seem that a film headed for $275 million can be considered an afterthought? Oh well, with over half a billion in the bank worldwide already, the sequel plans can certainly go ahead, and perhaps we'll be a little more interested next time. Give it $19 million this weekend.




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Ted continues to be the surprise story of the summer, dropping just 30% last weekend and going over $160 million. While a Hangover-like performance is probably out of the cards at this point (it'll fall behind that film's pace after this weekend), it's definitely cemented its place as the comedy of the summer. I look for around $16 million for it this weekend.

Having passed both the original Toy Story and Cars 2 in Pixar's stable of films last weekend, Brave is now targeting Ratatouille's $206 million for a potential pass this weekend. This of course has to be placed in context with it being in 3D and benefiting from many years of ticket inflation, but a win is a win, right? Add $7 million this weekend.

Rounding out the significant films this weekend are Savages and Magic Mike, which both look to land just over $5 million. In Magic Mike's case, that's enough to push it over $100 million, while Oliver Stone's return to R-rated violence will likely have to settle for a final total around half that.


Forecast: Weekend of July 20-22, 2012
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Dark Knight Rises 4,404 New 180.7
2 Ice Age: Continental Drift 3,886 +5 25.9
3 The Amazing Spider-Man N/A N/A 19.1
4 Ted 3.213 -90 16.0
5 Brave 2,899 -493 7.6
6 Magic Mike 2,606 -484 5.5
7 Savages 2,336 -299 5.3
8 Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection 1,540 -464 2.8
9 Moonrise Kingdom 895 -29 2.8
10 Katy Perry: Part of Me 1,123 -1,609 1.8

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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