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Weekend Forecast for April 13-15, 2012

By Reagen Sulewski

April 13, 2012

Look out! The cabin in the woods is gonna get you!

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In fairness, this film is pitched purely at the under 13 set, so criticism of the intelligence level of the film is probably misplaced. This kind of gratuitous slapstick and broad comedy just looks odd in modern contexts, and there's not a lot of moments in the trailer that really qualify as clever or funny. Even the tagline, “Just Say Moe”, makes no sense. Was that the first thing they came up with and called it a day? It sure shows the care they probably took in making this, which is to say not much. Don't expect a lot out of this, with maybe a $9 million opening in store.

Whatever criticisms might get laid at the feet of Lockout, a lack of plot won't be one of them. Guy Pearce stars as a wrongly-convicted man chosen for a one-man mission to rescue the President's daughter from a prison riot – in space. Hey, at least it's been a while since Escape from L.A., and maybe putting it in space could add something. Or probably it's just a gimmick. But it's worth a shot, right?

Another thing you have to give the film is that it sure looks like they're having fun with the concept, though whether the script, the action or the effects are any good are still up for debate. It's a Luc Bresson production, which can mean a wide variance in making any sense. That is, if they even get to American shores – for every Besson production you see, there's like eight more out there in the world somewhere. With a different star, this might have gotten an actual push, but Pearce is still pretty much a non-factor as a draw. Describing his character entirely in cliches and tropes doesn't help things. The bottom line here is that without a big ad push, a star that people care about or any kind of money shot in the trailer, this is going to be a quickly forgotten film. I'd say we're looking at around $4 million here.

That leaves things wide open for The Hunger Games to take a fourth straight weekend crown. After a pretty steep fall in its second weekend, things turned around a bit, and it held serve with a $33 million third weekend. Currently sitting at around $315 million domestic, it should hit the top 20 all time by the middle of next week after a $19 million take this weekend.




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American Reunion defied its inessential nature to earn $21 million in its bow, though this represents a low point in its inflation-adjusted history. Whereas the rest of the American Pie series all broke $100 million domestic, this one might struggle to crack $60 million. I'd add another $11 million to its total for this weekend.

Titanic 3D failed to make as much of a splash as many might have thought, with just $17 million and $26 million over five days. That's quite a bit less proportionally to some of the other 3D re-releases like The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast, considering this was once upon a time the box office champ. Perhaps it's backlash, perhaps the core audience was smaller than we thought, but either way it's a bit disappointing. I'd expect about $10 million here.

Crowding around the $6 million mark should be three more carryovers, Wrath of the Titans, Mirror Mirror and 21 Jump Street. Of these, only the latter should be this far down in its weekend number already. While Mirror Mirror's eventual $60 million total looks pretty bad, Wrath's future $90 million finish is a much bigger disaster on a relative scale. Meanwhile, the TV adaptation is cruising along towards $150 million.


Forecast: Weekend of April 13-15, 2012
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Hunger Games 3,916 -221 19.8
2 The Cabin in the Woods 2,811 New 16.7
3 American Reunion 3,203 +11 11.4
4 Titanic 3D 2,687 +23 10.3
5 The Three Stooges 3,477 New 9.5
6 21 Jump Street 2,735 -274 6.8
7 Mirror Mirror 3,206 -412 6.4
8 Wrath of the Titans 3,102 -443 5.7
9 Lockout 2,308 New 5.1
10 The Lorax 2,071 -932 3.3

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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