Survivor: South Pacific
Running the Show
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
November 17, 2011
Whitney - 50-1. Only an immunity necklace will save Whitney from being the first boot tonight. And I don't see that happening. Whitney should be the first one sent to Redemption Island tonight. And once she's there, whoever survives the challenge tonight will be ready to dispatch her right away.
Ozzy - 100-1. While all the ads and the editing are pointing to Ozzy making a huge stand at Redemption, it could all be an attempt to trick us. But honestly, I don't think so. Neither Keith nor Jim has proven to be any kind of challenge stud, like Ozzy. So I would expect Ozzy to win tonight sending Keith and Jim to Ponderosa as the first two members of our jury.
Keith/Jim - 1 million-1. That's right, I'm putting all my eggs in the Ozzy basket. I say he wins tonight and Keith and Jim see their game end. You can mark their final Tribal Council votes as "Anyone But Cochran." Now, let's get to the episode!
We begin tonight on Redemption Island and Jim's arrival. No one's shocked to see him. Jim tells us that Upolu is very cult like right now and if it keeps going, Coach will win the million. Over at Te Tuna, the tribe gathers and Coach tells everyone that Jim is the most dangerous kind of person out there because he can lie right to your face and turn on you. He tells us that at this point in the game, it's very important to make the people at the bottom of the tribe feel like they're not at the bottom, or they'll revolt. He suggests that we see way more blindsides than we see alliances sticking together. This tells me more and more that Coach has really learned something here and it's what made Rob so strong. No one thought they were at the bottom of the pecking order...so no one ever thought to make a move. Coach tells Whitney and Dawn that he doesn't make the decisions. They decide everything as a group. Whitney tells us that it's obvious that Coach is running the show and she's amazed that such smart people can be so stupid.
The next morning, Coach-chi has his first disciple. Cochran is in the water Coach-chi-ing. He tells us that he hates to admit it, but he is drinking the Coach kool-aid. After they finish, Coach tells Cochran that he's worried. Albert has been real squirrely and Brandon is being Brandon. He feels that something is going on and he's afraid he'll be the target. Cochran, of course, is worried about being the first of their seven to be voted off. He tells us that Coach is very worried about Albert making a move. He says that if Albert were to take control, he fears for his own game.
And with that, it's time for our Redemption Island Duel (Truel?). Today's challenge is the one where they stand with the arms up and out holding up a couple poles. Any movement will cause the poles to fall. Last one standing with his poles upright wins the duel. Losers become the first and second members of the jury. Time to separate the man from the boys. Whatcha got, Oz? And with the slightest lapse in concentration, Jim loses control of his poles and becomes the first member of our jury. After much shuffling and a few near falls, Keith finally loses one of his poles, becoming the second member of the jury. Ozzy wins the duel and remains in this game. I'll go so far as to say that he also has two votes in the final tribal, should he make it there.