Survivor: South Pacific
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
November 8, 2011
We come back to camp after the challenge and the Savaiis are patting themselves on the back. They discuss the plan to vote for Sophie or maybe Rick. Ozzy asks if everyone is solid. As they all confirm, Keith asks Cochran like three times if he's gonna flip. So the always calm Cochran says, "Why, should I flip?" He says that he's in and is okay with going to rocks. Jim tells us that we're looking at a deadlock at the vote. With that settled, they discuss the odds. It breaks down like this: anyone with immunity doesn't have to pull a rock. So Ozzy and Dawn are safe. Whoever gets votes from the other tribe ALSO doesn't have to pull a rock. And if someone plays the hidden idol, THEY won't have to pull a rock. Jim suggests giving the idol to Whitney. I really have no idea what the logic there is, but that's what they seem to have decided. So, if that's the case, Whitney, Ozzy and Dawn will be immune from rock pulling. So will either Jim or Keith (assuming the Upolus try to get rid of a strong player.) That leaves the other guy (Jim or Keith) and Cochran as the only Savaiis pulling rocks, against all of the Uplous (save the one person who plays the hidden idol, should they choose to do that.) And while that sounds like great odds for the Savaii tribe, it doesn't sound like great odds to one John Cochran. He tells us that he loves this game and he respects this game too much to let his fate come down to the chance of pulling the wrong rock out of a bag.
Right away, Cochran goes running to Sophie with what he's learned. He tells her that the Savaii's are voting for Rick and Ozzy will give his idol to Whitney. He suggests to Sophie that the best thing would be if Rick plays their idol and then no one has to revote. She agrees with him, but considering what her tribe has built, that's too big of a risk to take at his word. He asks her who they're voting for and she refuses to tell him. He then asks her for her tribe's protection if he does flip. Sophie tells us that while you can never be sure about someone flipping, she feels like Cochran is leaning that way. She says he's worried about getting beat up, which is "legitimate thing for a dodge ball target to be afraid of." Next up is Cochran telling Coach how they're going to eat him alive tonight. He asks where he's going to sleep tonight and Coach tells him right in between the Upolus. Coach then tells us that he's done all he can do with Cochran. He's told him that he'll be appreciated and respected with the Upolus. He says he's convinced him that the weak will finally be strong and that the nerd will finally take down the bully.
The next conversation I find very interesting. Cochran is talking with Dawn. He suggests that he might switch his vote on the revote at Tribal. She says that she won't tell anyone, but she has to think about it. She tells him that before the challenge she was thinking that this wasn't the best option for them. That starting a war wasn't in his best interest. What I find interesting here is how much a person's opinion can change once they have that immunity necklace around their neck. I mean, why would Dawn EVER switch her vote now? She's immune from the vote AND the rock drawing. And with that necklace came the "Go Savaii" pennant, I guess.
Cochran tells us that the fact that she's bailing on him does give him pause, but he's been offered a nice promise by the Upolus in exchange for his vote. He tells us that he's not sure what to do...stick with the people that have been ignorant to him for 21 days, or jump ship and become hated. Dawn is trying to convince him that he's making a mistake and he's trying to convince her that he wants to have control of his own fate. I'm telling you that he wants to be known as "the guy who made the big move". By the looks of it, two of us are going to be right.