Survivor: South Pacific
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
November 8, 2011
Dawn - 25-1. I think there's a lot of game left in Dawn. She's in a good place in her tribe, but more than that, she will be a threat to win individual immunity every time out, I think. While all the alpha males target each other, don't be surprised if the little English professor from Utah is still in this game on the final episode.
Rick/Edna - 30-1. I don't know where to put either of these two, so I'll lump them together here and say that if either of them makes a deep run into the game, I'll be shocked. Not only that, but if they last that long, I'll be incredibly bored, so it won't really matter. They're in the Upolu alliance, but they're not players in it right now, which makes them very expendable.
Whitney - 40-1. Whitney seems like she could be a casualty of the numbers. She could end up on the wrong side of things and she's shown me nothing that says she can make a run at this thing and stay in the game. If there was someone I could vote as "most likely to be used for her vote and sacrificed later" Whitney would be that person.
Brandon - 50-1. I still don't think he's long for this game, but I think he'll make it another episode at least. I wouldn't be shocked to see Savaii target him as a possible defector based on the Hantz legacy. Again, he won't be the first targeted, but I think they'll look to him sooner rather than later, just based on the annoyance factor.
Keith - 75-1. With Ozzy out of the main game, Keith becomes the biggest target on the Savaii tribe. My guess is that if tribes merge, Upolu will line him up to be the first to go. If the tribes don't merge, I could still see Keith as the target of the Jim/Dawn/Cochran alliance. Especially considering Cochran has the idol, effectively taking him out of the conversation.
Ozzy - 100-1. I toyed with actually putting Ozzy higher than this, but I figured I'd stay with my formula. I think there's no chance that Ozzy loses this duel tonight. The big question is, will it put him back in the game? Or will he have to wait for his next opponent? Based on last season, the winner of tonight's duel would come back into the game...which makes last week's decision look genius. Of course, he could also lose and be the dumbest player ever.
Christine - 1 million-1. I know I've done this twice before. But I overrated Stacey and Mikayla. I don't think I can overrate Ozzy in a one and done challenge. I see no way he loses. Which means I finally get to wave bye bye to Christine. I've been wanting to do that since her "they're temporary players" comment in the first five minutes of the show. Can't wait!
The show starts as Savaii returns to camp after sending Ozzy to Redemption Island. Cochran is amazed at the turn of events and that this should go down as one of the greatest moves in Survivor history. As they talk around the fire, Keith takes Cochran to task for not just stepping up and going to Redemption and showing what he can do. He says that he would never just let someone else fight his battles. Well, except for that one time when he voted out Ozzy to go to Redemption Island to battle Christine. I mean, just that once. Discussion turns to Cochran being a spy into the Upolu tribe and Keith asks him if he's ready to be the villain. Cochran tells us that he should be great at being a spy as he's already pretending he likes his own tribe.