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Survivor: Redemption Island

The Game Respects Big Moves

By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst

April 9, 2011

Are her eyes red? Like a demon's? Matt won't like that.

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Matt - 20-1 That's right. You're seeing correctly. I'm so sure that Matt wins tonight, I'm bumping him all the way up here. If he comes back, he has the pick of his alliance. He can join up with Rob, or he can help to take Rob out. Even if he gets voted out, he just goes back to Matt's Island to keep defending his crown. I think this kid has a good chance to win this thing.

Julie/Steve - 30-1 I think Julie and Steve are a little safer than Mike and David. I expect them to be on the wrong end of the numbers, but neither of them will be seen as a major threat. Steve is a former NFL-er, that's for sure. But he's done nothing to show that he can win a challenge. Julie, while quite buff, is the same. I think the powers that be will be looking elsewhere and these two will skate by for a bit.

David - 50-1 The next three are hard and could go in any order, really. David is smarter than anyone else out there. I think that will buy him a few more days. So I'll list him ahead of Mike and Phillip based solely on his brain. I do think David is a bad spot, though, as he's not part of his own Tribal alliance and why would he be welcomed into the other tribe?

Phillip - 100-1 Phillip is a chucklenut. There's no two ways about it. However, after the reward last week, he felt more like a member of a tribe. If they can keep that feeling alive for him, he will not flip right off the bat. He's an outside shot to get the boot, but I think the Ometepes will want to keep him on board as long as possible, especially with the potential arrival of Matt.




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Mike - 250-1 In a week that's a complete crapshoot, I'm going with Mike as the boot this week. Despite being completely dismantled by Grant two weeks ago, he's seen as the strongest member of this tribe and he comes off as a leader. Unless he wins immunity, I expect Mike to be the first person sent to the second coming of Redemption Island.

Sarita - 1 million-1 The sixth victim of Matt's dominance will burn her buff tonight. I don't care what the previews hint at, Matt ain't losing this last duel. He's been there too long, worked too hard to let it go now. Also, there's Sarita. There's nothing that tells me she has anywhere near the strength (mental or physical) or the wherewithal to compete with Matt. Thanks for playing Sarita, say hi to Russell for me.

We join the episode with the Zapatera tribe coming back to camp after dumping Sarita. David lets Ralph know that he's not offended that Ralph wrote his name down. Julie and Steve tell us how they really need to even this thing up.


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