Survivor: Redemption Island
Keep Hope Alive
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
March 3, 2011
Over at Zapatera, Ralph tells us that they successfully threw the challenge to get rid of Russell. He lets us know that Russell thinks this is his game, but it's not. Oddly enough, between finding an idol and not telling anyone, and then bashing the person who found a clue as "not a team player" and throwing a challenge...Ralph is beginning to display all the traits that he so hates in Russell. Amazing what this game will do to you.
Julie, Mike and Dave discuss the plan for the votes. Mike suggests a split, just in case Stephanie is holding the idol. Dave tells us the plan to vote three for Russell and three for Stephanie, in the event that they actually do have the idol. Russell is telling his minions that he doesn't understand the concept of throwing a challenge. He tells us that you can't give Boston Rob any momentum in this game. He continues with his girls by saying that they'll likely split the vote 3-3 and then everyone would vote Russell on the re-vote, unless they can get someone to flip. He asks Stephanie what she thinks of trying to flip Julie. They determine Julie's the only option, so off Stephanie goes to try to move the immovable object.
Stephanie asks Julie where she stands with the alliance. Julie agrees that Russell does know how to get to the end and that it makes sense for her to join them. She tells us that it's a tough call because she does know how good he is and that he does take his group to the end. The Minion comes back to Groo, I mean Russell, and tells him that Julie is with them. He decides it's now time for him to plant the Russell seed (he doesn't actually say that, but I enjoy the term so much, I thought I'd bring it back). Russell tells Julie that if she goes with them, he'll have her back all the way. He tells her they're going for Ralph and reiterates that he has her back on this. He then tells us that if this actually works, it would be the biggest move he's ever made.
In all honesty, the Russell Three is in a heap of trouble. They're outnumbered 6-3, the other side has an idol and everyone hates Russell. Their only glimmer of hope is that Ralph keeps the idol a secret, the alliance splits their vote and they get someone to flip to their side. The way I see it, Ralph, SteveDave and Mike will never ever flip to Russell's side. Sarita seems pretty solidly rooted in the alliance as well. Julie is very tight with the alliance, but she was the only one to express concern over throwing the challenge. Is that enough to get her to flip? I don't think so. But, of the six...she was the ONLY option they had and I'm kind of impressed they decided on her. Either way, it seems to me to be the last ditch effort of a three-person alliance that knows it’s doomed. Well, considering who these three are, they probably don't know they're doomed. But any other group of three would. They're just clinging to that last shred of hope that Julie will do the unthinkable and allow Russell to stay in the game.