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Survivor: Redemption Island

Keep Hope Alive

By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst

March 3, 2011

It is very, very difficult to say Francesca with a dry mouth.

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Phillip - 15-1 Our resident nut job has accidentally put himself in a pretty good position. He's set himself up as a "vote in hand" for Rob. While not exactly part of the alliance, Rob knows he has Phillip's vote and if anyone else IN the alliance gets any wacky ideas, Phillip could easily be brought in to replace them. If Rob can run the table with his alliance of four, Phillip could become the all important swing vote that propels Rob to the end.

Mike/Steve/Sarita/David/Julie/Krista - 20-1 None of these people have gotten enough screen time to warrant a single slot in the Rankings at this point. We really need Zapatera to lose a challenge so we can spend more time with them and learn what makes them tick.

Stephanie - 30-1 Stephanie is Russell's girl right now, but no one is looking at her. They're all focused on Russell. She seems savvy enough that once she sees the tide turning on Russell, I reckon she'll jump ship to the rest of the tribe and try to work her way in somewhere.

Andrea/Kristina 50-1 Kristina used her idol so is now completely vulnerable (unless she can find the idol again...you know it will be re-hidden). Andrea has lost her best friend and finds herself on the outs with her alliance. Should Ometepe lose again, one of these 2 will get the boot. It really depends on how pissed Andrea is. If she gets over it and rejoins the alliance, Kristina goes home. If not, Rob could dump her just to remove the malcontent.




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Russell - 100-1 The only reason Russell isn't last in the Rankings is that two people have already been voted out. I have no doubts that as soon as Zapatera loses a challenge, Russell is gone. And odds are, they'll lose soon. Russell speaks of playing a different game, but he's playing the exact same game and it's time to pay the piper.

Matt - 250-1 You have to think Matt will beat Francesca in the first Redemption Island duel this week. Depending on how things go, Matt could be poised for a long stay on Redemption Island as none of the folks in danger of getting the boot strike fear into me as a challenge competitor. You would have to give Matt the edge over Russell, Stephanie, Kristina and Andrea (the four most likely to join him at RI). But due to the fact that he's only one bad challenge away from leaving, he has to be ranked this low.

Francesca - Still 1 million-1. I said it last week and it stands. Francesca has shown me nothing to suggest that she has a duel win in her - especially against Matt who seems to be pretty decent in the challenges. My guess is Matt wins this duel and we say goodbye to Francesca tonight.

We begin this episode at Redemption Island as Matt arrives to a shocked Francescalammadingdong. Neither one of them can believe that Matt was the boot last week. Matt tells her he doesn't even have any of his stuff, he was so secure. He tells her that he feels like an idiot because he thought he was tight in that alliance. He's handling it pretty well and seems pretty hell bent on revenge.


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