New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

We’re still in the holiday doldrums of the awards season, so what better topic to discuss for this week’s In Contention than box office? As you may have guessed, just as you are probably taking time off from work to spend time with your family and friends, so it goes for the folks in the film industry. Once the new year begins, we’ll start racing through the guild awards, the Golden Globes, and the Oscar nominations, but until then, with the Christmas weekend box office staring us in the face, let’s look at where the presumed Best Picture nominees stand (at least, those that are still out; Inception and Toy Story 3, two likely candidates, had no problem at the box office over the summer).

We can now say, of course, that the box office has officially zero effect on what films win Best Picture at the Academy Awards, looking to last year’s festivities as a prime example. Though there were 10 nominees, most industry insiders assumed, and were more than likely right, that the race came down to two very unique movies: The Hurt Locker and Avatar. The former film was directed by Kathryn Bigelow, dealing with three soldiers who defused bombs throughout Iraq. Domestically, The Hurt Locker grossed only $16.4 million at the box office, and that’s including whatever money it made after it was nominated. Avatar was directed by Bigelow’s ex, James Cameron, and is the highest-grossing film ever made, making over $2.7 billion. While you can find a kajillion versions of Avatar on DVD and Blu-ray (and apparently, in pirated downloads, too), The Hurt Locker won the big prize.

So, box office doesn’t matter. However, The Hurt Locker is something of an outlier. Over the past 30 years, it is the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner, and it is one of the lowest-grossing nominees; as a comparison, in 1985, Kiss of the Spider Woman got nominated for the award and it made more money than The Hurt Locker did at the box office. I’ve always been baffled about why the movie did so poorly at the mulitplexes; yes, it’s a film set during the Iraq War, but the movie is essentially a lot of very tense, very expertly crafted action sequences with a few bridging scenes in between. And that’s it. How does that movie not make money? Either way, though box office doesn’t officially matter, making some money is important. It’s rare for a Best Picture nominee to make under $10 million pre-nominations, even if it has happened.

Leaving aside the aforementioned Inception and Toy Story 3, which are not only out of theatres but are doing great business on DVD and Blu-ray, there have been some interesting box office stories. The two frontrunners remain The King’s Speech and The Social Network. The latter film has been inching closer and closer to $100 million domestically at the box office, and may end up doing so once the Oscars are actually presented at the end of February. However, it’s also coming out on DVD and Blu-ray in two weeks (if you’re shocked, join the club; while the release will have some cool special features, it seems a bit abrupt to me). The King’s Speech has just expanded nationwide and did pretty well at only a few hundred theaters this past weekend. While it’s likely to attract older audiences - thanks in part to the apparently unnecessary R rating - The King’s Speech looks to do healthy, but not incredible business. It could have done a lot worse.

One of the bigger surprises so far this season, and a very pleasant one to boot, is Black Swan. A movie about ballet at the box office sounds like a one-way ticket to Snoozeville for most people (and with the exception of a movie like The Red Shoes, I’m right there with those folks). Darren Aronofsky has made some well-liked independent films, but even The Wrestler, his last film, made under $30 million. However, thanks to some very passionate critics, a smart expansion plan from Fox Searchlight, and interest from young girls (which is, to me, at least, a bit weird, considering what happens in the movie), the movie has already grossed $29 million in North America, more than doubling its production budget. While Black Swan may end up being too off-putting to some voters or too divisive, it’s become a force to be reckoned with.

Continued:       1       2