In Contention
By Josh Spiegel
December 28, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
We can now say, of course, that the box office has officially zero effect on what films win Best Picture at the Academy Awards, looking to last year’s festivities as a prime example. Though there were 10 nominees, most industry insiders assumed, and were more than likely right, that the race came down to two very unique movies: The Hurt Locker and Avatar. The former film was directed by Kathryn Bigelow, dealing with three soldiers who defused bombs throughout Iraq. Domestically, The Hurt Locker grossed only $16.4 million at the box office, and that’s including whatever money it made after it was nominated. Avatar was directed by Bigelow’s ex, James Cameron, and is the highest-grossing film ever made, making over $2.7 billion. While you can find a kajillion versions of Avatar on DVD and Blu-ray (and apparently, in pirated downloads, too), The Hurt Locker won the big prize.
So, box office doesn’t matter. However, The Hurt Locker is something of an outlier. Over the past 30 years, it is the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner, and it is one of the lowest-grossing nominees; as a comparison, in 1985, Kiss of the Spider Woman got nominated for the award and it made more money than The Hurt Locker did at the box office. I’ve always been baffled about why the movie did so poorly at the mulitplexes; yes, it’s a film set during the Iraq War, but the movie is essentially a lot of very tense, very expertly crafted action sequences with a few bridging scenes in between. And that’s it. How does that movie not make money? Either way, though box office doesn’t officially matter, making some money is important. It’s rare for a Best Picture nominee to make under $10 million pre-nominations, even if it has happened.
Leaving aside the aforementioned Inception and Toy Story 3, which are not only out of theatres but are doing great business on DVD and Blu-ray, there have been some interesting box office stories. The two frontrunners remain The King’s Speech and The Social Network. The latter film has been inching closer and closer to $100 million domestically at the box office, and may end up doing so once the Oscars are actually presented at the end of February. However, it’s also coming out on DVD and Blu-ray in two weeks (if you’re shocked, join the club; while the release will have some cool special features, it seems a bit abrupt to me). The King’s Speech has just expanded nationwide and did pretty well at only a few hundred theaters this past weekend. While it’s likely to attract older audiences - thanks in part to the apparently unnecessary R rating - The King’s Speech looks to do healthy, but not incredible business. It could have done a lot worse.
One of the bigger surprises so far this season, and a very pleasant one to boot, is Black Swan. A movie about ballet at the box office sounds like a one-way ticket to Snoozeville for most people (and with the exception of a movie like The Red Shoes, I’m right there with those folks). Darren Aronofsky has made some well-liked independent films, but even The Wrestler, his last film, made under $30 million. However, thanks to some very passionate critics, a smart expansion plan from Fox Searchlight, and interest from young girls (which is, to me, at least, a bit weird, considering what happens in the movie), the movie has already grossed $29 million in North America, more than doubling its production budget. While Black Swan may end up being too off-putting to some voters or too divisive, it’s become a force to be reckoned with.
The Fighter, the true story of a boxer from Lowell, Massachusetts, is also doing respectably at the box office. Before the film was released, there was skepticism from plenty of corners about whether or not this would be another Million Dollar Baby or something akin to Rocky Balboa (as in, the last Rocky movie, not the first one). What’s more, the film’s director, David O. Russell, is not beloved within Hollywood, due to some fractious relationships he’s had with past collaborators, including George Clooney. However, the film’s uplifting story and remarkable performances, from Christian Bale and Amy Adams, has helped it become something of a dark horse in the race, potentially being able to steal away the Oscar from The King’s Speech and The Social Network. As of the end of the Christmas weekend, The Fighter has also closed in on $30 million, also making up its budget. Crowd-pleasers can come in small and large types, and The Fighter seems to be a mix of both.
The other big Christmas release that’s looking to get Oscar nominations is True Grit, the remake of the 1969 John Wayne Western that garnered the Duke an Oscar for his performance as Rooster Cogburn. As we’ve discussed earlier this year, any movie from Joel and Ethan Coen should be considered an automatic Oscar contender. Add Matt Damon, Josh Brolin and recent winner Jeff Bridges to the mix, and you’re almost guaranteed a slot. Now that the film has opened to rave reviews, the box office was about all the film needed to be thought of as a lock. Well, as much as I hate offering guarantees, consider this one as close as you get. Over the five-day weekend, True Grit made over $35 million, making it the highest-grossing opening weekend for any Coen film, and potentially the beginning of their first $100 million grosser.
For today’s column, there’s but one film left to look at. The follow-up to Slumdog Millionaire, the 2008 Best Picture winner, from the director and writer of the film should be just as close of a lock for this year, right? You’d think so, but 127 Hours, co-written and directed by Danny Boyle, is struggling to stay afloat at the box office. The true story of Aron Rolston, a hiker who got his right arm stuck in a boulder with only the one, gruesome way out has made just about $10 million at the box office since opening at the beginning of November. While James Franco - one of this year’s Oscar hosts, a fact that gets weirder each time I think about it - is likely a shoo-in to get a Best Actor nomination, the movie may not be so lucky.
Why is 127 Hours doing so poorly at the box office? Boyle’s films aren’t always going to make big money, but he clearly knows how to please mass audiences. The issue remains what it’s remained since the beginning: do you want to watch a movie that climaxes in a man - spoiler alert for…well, real life - who cuts off his arm with a penknife? Having seen the film and being a pretty wimpy moviegoer when it comes to gore, I can tell you that I had no problem with the climactic scene, and was kind of shocked that it took up so little of the film’s relatively short length. But then there are people who just don’t want to watch a movie where you’re stuck in a tight space for 90 minutes. Whatever the reason, too many people just aren’t interested in watching this movie. 127 Hours still has a good shot to be nominated for Best Picture, but don’t be surprised if it’s not on the list of 10 films come the morning of January 25.
Still, the fact that there are 10 nominees opens the field up considerably. Movies such as The Town (which, in this writer’s opinion, was mostly well-done genre filmmaking but nothing great) and Shutter Island have chances to get nominated, while movies including The Social Network, The King’s Speech, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, and Toy Story 3 are likely getting in no matter what happens over the next four weeks. Ten nominees in the category means there’s a couple of slots open for surprise movies, and box office can help out these films even if it doesn’t guarantee any film a win at the Oscars.