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The nominees for Best Original Screenplay are The Hurt Locker, written by Mark Boal; Inglourious Basterds, written by Tarantino; The Messenger, written by Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman; A Serious Man, written by Joel and Ethan Coen; and Up, written by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, and Tom McCarthy. The screenplay that will win here, if only by a nose, is The Hurt Locker (the other frontrunner is Inglourious Basterds). The screenplay that should win is the one for Up, also known as my favorite movie of 2009. There's no question that The Hurt Locker is an excellent script, managing to couch its plot in between several action set pieces; Inglourious Basterds is also a very worthy contender. However, my love for Up extends to its script, so tightly written as to make the transition from harsh realism to whimsy smooth. Still, bet on The Hurt Locker.

The nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay are District 9, written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell; An Education, written by Nick Hornby; In The Loop, written by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, and Tony Roche; Precious, written by Geoffrey Fletcher; and Up in the Air, written by Jason Reitman. The movie that will win here is Up in the Air. The movie that should win is In The Loop, which was easily the funniest film of 2009. No, not just the funniest film that wasn't The Hangover. The funniest film of 2009 was In The Loop, and why haven't you seen it yet? I know you haven't. Be honest. Anyway, Up in the Air is certainly a strong script from Reitman, and his work is a worthy competitor. As much as I enjoyed that film, though, it doesn't have nearly as much creative profanity as does In The Loop; of course, it has no creative profanity, which is a blow right there. Whatever the case, though, Up in the Air will win here.

The nominees for Best Animated Feature are Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, and Up. The movie that will and should win is, of course, Up. That's not to say that this category isn't as much of a cakewalk for Pixar as in the past; though I've not seen The Secret of Kells (and you probably haven't, either), the other nominees are not only very popular, but all excellent movies in their own right. Still, seeing as Up is not anywhere near likely to win Best Picture or Screenplay, the movie's most obvious award will come in this category. And, though I loved Coraline, The Princess and the Frog, and Fantastic Mr. Fox, I will be very disappointed should some shocking turn of events occur that make it so Up doesn't win. That occurrence, though, is extremely unlikely. Hang on to one of those balloons and bet on Up.

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