In Contention
By Josh Spiegel
March 2, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
First off, let's start with the big awards. The ten nominees for Best Picture this year are Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, and Up in the Air. My pick for the movie that will win is, after much hemming and hawing, The Hurt Locker. Right now, it's fair to say that the race is mostly between The Hurt Locker and Avatar. While The Hurt Locker has had a minor controversy arise in the past week (regarding a campaign e-mail sent to Academy voters by one of the film's producers, which is a big no-no for the Academy), I feel like enough people are more willing to honor a great action film, a subtle character study, and a movie directed by a woman, instead of a movie featuring technology that may scare them a bit.
In the same way that newspapers are being forced out by online media, so may actors (the largest group of Academy voters) feel like their honoring Avatar, a movie that wouldn't be possible without the most state-of-the-art computer technology, will signal a beginning of the end for live-action greatness. I'm not saying they should feel this way, but more than enough of them seem to be a bit wary of Avatar, and what it signifies for the future of Hollywood. Having said that, I won't be shocked should Avatar win; still, my pick is The Hurt Locker. For the movie that should win: well, there are more than a few good choices here. I'm almost inspired to pick Inglourious Basterds, a suspenseful and outrageous piece of entertainment featuring brilliant performances, a tight and witty script, and skillful direction.
The nominees for Best Director are James Cameron for Avatar, Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds, Lee Daniels for Precious, and Jason Reitman for Up in the Air. The person who will win is Bigelow, for her sterling work in The Hurt Locker; I also believe she's the person who should win this award. Though Cameron's work in Avatar is faultless, in terms of bringing the story and world of Pandora to life, Bigelow's work is equally exceptional, all the more so because she manages to make the world of Baghdad so believable and new, despite having a low budget to work with. The other nominees, except Daniels (whose direction I found too flashy at times), did fine work, but expect the Academy to finally award a female director on Sunday night.
The nominees for Best Actor are Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, George Clooney in Up in the Air, Colin Firth in A Single Man, Morgan Freeman in Invictus, and Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker. The actor who'll take home the golden statuette is Bridges, for his laid-back yet moving work in Crazy Heart; the actor who should win is Renner. While Bridges is unquestionably fine in his film (and will win partly because he's never won an Oscar in his lengthy career), Renner's work as Staff Sergeant James is more worthy because he manages to build his character so subtly, yet convey so many emotions. Clooney's work is among his best, certainly, but he's probably going to have to be content to smile politely and clap for the cameras as the Dude accepts his first Oscar.
The Best Actress nominees are Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side, Helen Mirren in The Last Station, Carey Mulligan in An Education, Gaboury Sidibe in Precious, and Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia. The actress who is going to win is, yes, Bullock. I'm a bit shorthanded in this category, having only seen Sidibe and Streep in their respective films, so for the actress who should win, I'm going to go with Sidibe. It's not just that this young woman seems so fundamentally different than her character (a distinction that's not exactly unique for actors), it's that her performance could have easily been taken out of a documentary about the slums of Harlem in the 1980s; her work is that real and heartfelt. Having not seen The Blind Side and not being a fan of Julie & Julia, I'm not sure I'm going to care much about this category's outcome, but put your backing behind Bullock.
The nominees for Best Supporting Actor are Matt Damon in Invictus, Woody Harrelson in The Messenger, Christopher Plummer in The Last Station, Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones, and Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds. The man who will and should win the prize is Waltz, for his multilingual and multifaceted performance as Col. Hans Landa of the SS, a man so feared that he is nicknamed the Jew Hunter, especially by those pesky titular soldiers. Waltz's work is so brilliant mainly because he manages to exude menace without seeming angry, be as charming as a snake, slithering in and out of the action. Moreover, when he's not onscreen, you're sorely wishing for him to return. His win will extend the streak of villainous roles being award the Best Supporting Actor award to three years, but it's a well-deserved achievement.
The nominees for Best Supporting Actress are Penelope Cruz in Nine, Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, and Mo'Nique in Precious. The actress who will win the award is Mo'Nique, as I've been telling you for weeks (though, to be fair, just about everyone's been saying it for as long). I'm going to go a bit against type here, and say that the actress who should win is Kendrick, for her uptight yet perky performance in Up in the Air. Having only seen her previously in the wretched Twilight series, I was wary to watch her against Clooney and Farmiga, but was dazzled by her work in the film. As with Waltz, when Kendrick is not onscreen, I was wishing for her safe return. There's no question that Mo'Nique's work is brilliant and deserving of an award, but Kendrick winning would make me very happy. Unfortunately, the world in which that will happen is not the one in which we live.
The nominees for Best Original Screenplay are The Hurt Locker, written by Mark Boal; Inglourious Basterds, written by Tarantino; The Messenger, written by Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman; A Serious Man, written by Joel and Ethan Coen; and Up, written by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, and Tom McCarthy. The screenplay that will win here, if only by a nose, is The Hurt Locker (the other frontrunner is Inglourious Basterds). The screenplay that should win is the one for Up, also known as my favorite movie of 2009. There's no question that The Hurt Locker is an excellent script, managing to couch its plot in between several action set pieces; Inglourious Basterds is also a very worthy contender. However, my love for Up extends to its script, so tightly written as to make the transition from harsh realism to whimsy smooth. Still, bet on The Hurt Locker.
The nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay are District 9, written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell; An Education, written by Nick Hornby; In The Loop, written by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, and Tony Roche; Precious, written by Geoffrey Fletcher; and Up in the Air, written by Jason Reitman. The movie that will win here is Up in the Air. The movie that should win is In The Loop, which was easily the funniest film of 2009. No, not just the funniest film that wasn't The Hangover. The funniest film of 2009 was In The Loop, and why haven't you seen it yet? I know you haven't. Be honest. Anyway, Up in the Air is certainly a strong script from Reitman, and his work is a worthy competitor. As much as I enjoyed that film, though, it doesn't have nearly as much creative profanity as does In The Loop; of course, it has no creative profanity, which is a blow right there. Whatever the case, though, Up in the Air will win here.
The nominees for Best Animated Feature are Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, and Up. The movie that will and should win is, of course, Up. That's not to say that this category isn't as much of a cakewalk for Pixar as in the past; though I've not seen The Secret of Kells (and you probably haven't, either), the other nominees are not only very popular, but all excellent movies in their own right. Still, seeing as Up is not anywhere near likely to win Best Picture or Screenplay, the movie's most obvious award will come in this category. And, though I loved Coraline, The Princess and the Frog, and Fantastic Mr. Fox, I will be very disappointed should some shocking turn of events occur that make it so Up doesn't win. That occurrence, though, is extremely unlikely. Hang on to one of those balloons and bet on Up.
The nominees for Best Foreign-Language Film are Ajami, from Israel; The Milk of Sorrow, from Peru; A Prophet, from France; The Secret in Their Eyes, from Argentina; and The White Ribbon, from Germany. I'm going to leave off any analysis of which film should win here, because I've seen none of them. My guess (and this is strictly a guess, mind you) is that the film that will win is The White Ribbon, if only because its director, Michael Haneke is well-known in the States for such charmers as Funny Games and Cache. His work is well-respected enough throughout the industry to guarantee that he'll probably get the Oscar come Sunday, but this category is not my forte, unfortunately.
The nominees for Best Documentary Feature are Burma VJ, The Cove, Food, Inc., The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, and Which Way Home. Again, I'm going to forego any analysis about which film should win for the same reasons as with Best Foreign-Language Film. However, I can say with a bit more confidence that the movie that will win here is The Cove, a documentary about the inhumane and cruel treatment of dolphins in Asia. A big reason that this documentary will emerge victorious, aside from it being hailed as an excellent view into a shocking world, is that it has many famous people backing it up, including Ben Stiller. Nothing helps a movie like this more than Hollywood backing it up. Expect The Cove to win in this category.
I'm not going to touch on the various technical categories, and will only quickly say that, regarding the nominees for Best Original Song and Best Original Score, the likely winners will be Crazy Heart and Up, respectively. Crazy Heart's music is its second-most loved part, alongside Bridges' performance. The Weary Heart, as written by Ryan Bingham, will get the gold here. Up's score, by Lost composer Michael Giacchino, is not only memorable, but so integral to the plot (does that opening scene work nearly as well without as accomplished a score?) that the Academy will acknowledge its presence appropriately. Come back next week for a post-mortem on the ceremony, both on the winners and the show itself. Hopefully, I won't need that soapbox of mine, either. Happy viewing, everybody!