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Surprising, of course, is what the Golden Globes do best. The frontrunners for the Best Picture Oscar have, for the last month, been Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air. Still, Avatar's winning the Golden Globe for Best Picture and Best Director were not as solid. I, of course, was banking on Up in the Air and Kathryn Bigelow, for directing The Hurt Locker, to win. I was wrong; it was nice, though, for James Cameron to acknowledge Bigelow's contribution in his acceptance speech for Best Director. What does this mean for Avatar's chances at the Oscars? To be fair, its chances have been pretty damn good since it came out to rave reviews and even bigger box office. That the Globes awarded it doesn't mean anything is guaranteed (though the Globes are seen as a major precursor, I shudder to think that many Academy voters base their choices on how the HFPA honors films), Avatar is going to be nigh unstoppable. This movie might steamroll past the competition, just as Titanic did 12 years ago.

Cameron and Bigelow, though, remain neck-and-neck for the Best Director award. Cameron winning last night is a major blow against The Hurt Locker, if the conventional wisdom is to be believed. Arguably, the amount of technical prowess in Avatar is unparalleled. Such jaw-dropping techniques could help out Cameron against Bigelow and her smooth, yet not flashy, direction of The Hurt Locker. That's not to say that there aren't other directorial contenders, but this ex-husband-and-wife duo are likely the top vote-getters in the Academy.

What of The Hangover winning Best Comedy or Musical? Uh...well, I'd love to tell you that there's absolutely no chance of it getting an Oscar nomination. Not just because it's unlikely, but because I don't see it as being one of the top ten films of 2009 (yes, it was funny, but...ten-best quality? No.). However, that conventional wisdom can sometimes be seen as the truth, not just marketing. Does The Hangover have a chance? Yes. Now that there are ten Best Picture nominees, it stands as much a chance as Star Trek, District 9, Up, and other populist movies. But, its chances are not as high as the other popular films I mentioned. Don't count it out, but don't count on it being on the list of ten nominees.

Most of the other winners weren't too surprising; though I chose the incorrect winner, The White Ribbon winning the Best Foreign Language film isn't too surprising, as it may be the most well-known movie of the five nominees. Up won for Best Animated Feature and for Best Original Score, as I'd hoped and predicted. I still think that, when it comes to the Oscars, Marvin Hamlisch's work on The Informant! is the frontrunner, if only because the Oscars love honoring its elder members, especially after such a long time not doing any work. Still, Michael Giacchino's work for Up is a strong contender. Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner won the Best Screenplay award for Up in the Air, as I'd assumed. For Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars, this is the movie to beat.

Which leaves us with one movie, and two more winners: the movie is Crazy Heart. Jeff Bridges, who I'd rightly chosen as a potential shocker for the Best Actor in a Drama award (yes, I got the actual prediction wrong, fine), and The Weary Kind, the Best Original Song nominee, were the winners. What does this mean for Crazy Heart? Well, it's been picking up some major steam in the last few weeks, not just for the music and for Bridges' apparently amazing performance (I've not yet seen the movie, for disclosure). Scott Cooper, the writer-director, has been getting some heat, and may show up in the appropriate categories. More than that, Crazy Heart is now officially a serious contender for the Best Picture award. Do not be surprised if this film sneaks in come Groundhog Day. Just as Harvey Weinstein (who pretty much came up empty here) is tenacious about his movies, so is Fox Searchlight about theirs. Keep a sharp eye out for this one.

The Golden Globes are taken seriously. They are taken a bit too seriously. Exhibit A: the odd little award bestowed upon this year's most beautiful young woman, so she can be the model behind the presenter for each award. It happens every year, and it's just...strange. Exhibit B: the fact that everyone uses the ceremony as an excuse to drink. Ricky Gervais (who was funny, thank you very much; don't forget, he was being sarcastic all night long) was drinking, the presenters were drinking, the winners were drinking. How seriously can we take the Globes? They're not always wildly wrong, but when they are, it shows. The Globes are but a pregame for the Oscars. In two weeks, we'll have a lot less to speculate on, but for now, we're all still clueless. To quote William Goldman, nobody knows anything.

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