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The nominees for Best Picture - Comedy or Musical are (500) Days of Summer, The Hangover, It's Complicated, Julie & Julia, and Nine. My pick for what will win is Nine. Yes, Nine. I know, I've just recently told you that this movie is dead in the water at the Academy Awards, but I cannot emphasize the importance of movie-star wattage. There is a reason why you can always trust the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to honor the most famous people possible. They're always more than keen to get the high-toned stars to get well-dressed and have a few drinks at their ceremonies, and the only way to keep them coming is to keep giving them awards. Of the five films nominated, Nine is the one with the most stars, and it always helps to be a movie produced by Harvey Weinstein. Though Weinstein will focus heavily on Inglourious Basterds, Nine is by itself in this category, and should sail on. My pick for what should win is (500) Days of Summer, over the boozy The Hangover.

Arguably, the other big categories are all acting. It's been said here and elsewhere that, when it comes to the Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories, it's pretty much sewn up. The nominees are for each category are, respectively, Matt Damon in Invictus, Woody Harrelson in The Messenger, Christopher Plummer in The Last Station, Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones, and Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds; & Penelope Cruz in Nine, Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air, Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, Mo'Nique in Precious, and Julianne Moore in A Single Man. However, the likely winners, and the ones who should win, are Waltz and Mo'Nique. They've been scooping up awards left and right since the 2009 awards season began, and there's no indication that their respective freight trains are going to stop any time soon. Waltz and Mo'Nique will also get to win the similar Oscars come March 7th, in two completely unsurprising categories.

Two of the four lead actor categories in Drama and Comedy or Musical are also pretty close to being done before being announced: Best Actor in a Drama and Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical. For the former category, the man who will get himself a Golden Globe is Clooney for his starring turn in Up in the Air. Though Clooney delivers, by far, his best performance here, I would honor one of his should-have-been fellow nominees, Jeremy Renner for his work in The Hurt Locker. Unfortunately, Renner didn't get a nomination, a terrible slight by the HFPA. Still, the other nominees - Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, Colin Firth in A Single Man, Morgan Freeman in Invictus, and Tobey Maguire in Brothers - have all been praised in various circles. If you're looking for a potential shocker here, look at Bridges, whose work in Crazy Heart is being lauded top to bottom; if you're doing an office pool and want to shake things up, put his name down.

The Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical category is a lot more definite: Meryl Streep, Meryl Streep, Meryl Streep. Though she's nominated here for two films, It's Complicated and Julie & Julia, she'll likely get awarded for the latter film, thanks to her critically and commercially acclaimed turn as real-life chef Julia Child. The other nominees - Sandra Bullock in The Proposal, Marion Cotillard in Nine, and Julia Roberts in Duplicity - can hope that maybe Streep won't win if the HFPA splits the vote between her two nominations. Still, it's very unlikely that Streep won't be able to deliver another one of her patented acceptances speeches full of charm and flibbertigibbetness. Ah, well. Not a great year for women in comedies and musicals. Of the nominees, I've only seen two - Streep in Julie & Julia and Roberts - and, by default, Roberts gets my vote. But, bet on Streep.

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