In Contention
By Josh Spiegel
January 15, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Let's start with movies, and the biggest awards: Best Picture - Drama, and Best Picture - Comedy or Musical. The nominees for the former category are Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air. It's notable, first of all, that these five films are arguably the five top contenders for the Best Picture Oscar. Though, as I've mentioned in past articles, District 9 could sneak in and steal some thunder, it's likely that one of these five nominees is going to win the Oscar. What will win the Globe? I say the winner will be Up in the Air, the comedy-drama starring George Clooney and Vera Farmiga. What should win is more of a favorite choice; though all five of these films are arguably successful at what they want to do, and four of them will be on my top ten of 2009, my hope is that The Hurt Locker wins. What will push Up in the Air over? Two words: George Clooney. Clooney is the epitome of the movie star, and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association loves their movie stars.
Up in the Air is the type of movie that the HFPA is falling in love with. The Hurt Locker, while being incredibly visceral, tense, and brilliant, is perhaps a bit too in-your-face, whereas Up in the Air will go down a bit smoother for audiences. The other major film that could sneak in here is, perhaps, the one you were expecting that I would say will win: Avatar. This film is a behemoth at the box office (for all you know, by the time the Globes are over, Avatar has gotten another billion dollars under its belt), and is well-loved by audiences and critics alike. And yet, Avatar doesn't have the same push behind it that Up in the Air, a movie with a more well-known actor and equally crowd-pleasing. Moreover, it's not in the Globes' history to go for the science-fiction film, even one that is immensely popular. That's not to say that Avatar won't win; I just think the Globes will favor Clooney and company.
The nominees for Best Picture - Comedy or Musical are (500) Days of Summer, The Hangover, It's Complicated, Julie & Julia, and Nine. My pick for what will win is Nine. Yes, Nine. I know, I've just recently told you that this movie is dead in the water at the Academy Awards, but I cannot emphasize the importance of movie-star wattage. There is a reason why you can always trust the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to honor the most famous people possible. They're always more than keen to get the high-toned stars to get well-dressed and have a few drinks at their ceremonies, and the only way to keep them coming is to keep giving them awards. Of the five films nominated, Nine is the one with the most stars, and it always helps to be a movie produced by Harvey Weinstein. Though Weinstein will focus heavily on Inglourious Basterds, Nine is by itself in this category, and should sail on. My pick for what should win is (500) Days of Summer, over the boozy The Hangover.
Arguably, the other big categories are all acting. It's been said here and elsewhere that, when it comes to the Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories, it's pretty much sewn up. The nominees are for each category are, respectively, Matt Damon in Invictus, Woody Harrelson in The Messenger, Christopher Plummer in The Last Station, Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones, and Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds; & Penelope Cruz in Nine, Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air, Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, Mo'Nique in Precious, and Julianne Moore in A Single Man. However, the likely winners, and the ones who should win, are Waltz and Mo'Nique. They've been scooping up awards left and right since the 2009 awards season began, and there's no indication that their respective freight trains are going to stop any time soon. Waltz and Mo'Nique will also get to win the similar Oscars come March 7th, in two completely unsurprising categories.
Two of the four lead actor categories in Drama and Comedy or Musical are also pretty close to being done before being announced: Best Actor in a Drama and Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical. For the former category, the man who will get himself a Golden Globe is Clooney for his starring turn in Up in the Air. Though Clooney delivers, by far, his best performance here, I would honor one of his should-have-been fellow nominees, Jeremy Renner for his work in The Hurt Locker. Unfortunately, Renner didn't get a nomination, a terrible slight by the HFPA. Still, the other nominees - Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, Colin Firth in A Single Man, Morgan Freeman in Invictus, and Tobey Maguire in Brothers - have all been praised in various circles. If you're looking for a potential shocker here, look at Bridges, whose work in Crazy Heart is being lauded top to bottom; if you're doing an office pool and want to shake things up, put his name down.
The Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical category is a lot more definite: Meryl Streep, Meryl Streep, Meryl Streep. Though she's nominated here for two films, It's Complicated and Julie & Julia, she'll likely get awarded for the latter film, thanks to her critically and commercially acclaimed turn as real-life chef Julia Child. The other nominees - Sandra Bullock in The Proposal, Marion Cotillard in Nine, and Julia Roberts in Duplicity - can hope that maybe Streep won't win if the HFPA splits the vote between her two nominations. Still, it's very unlikely that Streep won't be able to deliver another one of her patented acceptances speeches full of charm and flibbertigibbetness. Ah, well. Not a great year for women in comedies and musicals. Of the nominees, I've only seen two - Streep in Julie & Julia and Roberts - and, by default, Roberts gets my vote. But, bet on Streep.
For Best Actress in a Drama, the field is pretty much wide open. The nominees are Emily Blunt in The Young Victoria, Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side, Helen Mirren in The Last Station, Carey Mulligan in An Education, and Gaboury Sidibe in Precious. My pick for who will win is Mulligan. Though her initial buzz has subsided a bit, she should pick up, at the very least, an Oscar nod in a few weeks. Though Bullock's turn is more popular, this category is very diverse, and she may find more hope at the Oscars, where she's likely to also get nominated for the Best Actress Oscar. Mulligan has the advantage of being British, being in a specifically British film, and being a relatively new ingénue. Though they've since discontinued the practice of actually awarding such young stars, I would wager that her spritely lead turn is going to divert any other attention Globe members may have directly to her. The surprise bet here would be Blunt, another younger actress, in a specifically British role. Still, I'm confident that Mulligan should take the win.
For Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical, the field is equally wide open. The nominees are Matt Damon in The Informant!, Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine, Robert Downey Jr. in Sherlock Holmes, Joseph Gordon-Levitt in (500) Days of Summer, and Michael Stuhlbarg in A Serious Man. My pick for who will win is Downey, for his populist turn as the famed Sir Arthur Conan Doyle sleuth. I realize that the choice is a bit out there, at least in terms of Oscar buzz (of which Downey has zero). However, I see Downey winning as a complementary tie to when Johnny Depp was lauded in awards circles for playing Captain Jack Sparrow in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. If Depp could get an Oscar nomination for Best Actor, and nearly win, I don't see why Downey, already well-loved in the community thanks to his comeback story, couldn't walk away with a Golden Globe. Everyone loves a comeback. That said, should I be wrong (as has happened many a time), the other potential winner is Damon, for his made-up turn as a doofy corporate dunce.
For Best Director, the competition is really between two people, as it will probably pan out at the Oscars: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker and James Cameron for Avatar. That's not to ignore the other three directors nominated at the Globes, as at least two of them are likely to get nominated at the Oscars. Quentin Tarantino and Jason Reitman, for Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air, respectively, are solid contenders for the Oscar nomination, but it's really between Bigelow and Cameron. Though Cameron's technological prowess is unparalleled, watch for Bigelow to win here, as she may do at the Oscars. Bigelow has brilliantly captured the perils of war in The Hurt Locker, and her film is, unlike Avatar, unblemished by any kind of silly controversy and is generally loved. Cameron, though, is the other serious contender to win. However, if Bigelow wins, maybe she dubs herself Queen of the World. It could happen. Oh, and as for the fifth nominee, Clint Eastwood for Invictus...well, the Globes love their movie stars, but to a point.
The last awards - Best Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Animated Feature, and Best Foreign Film - are likely to be run through quickly during the first part of the evening. I'm picking Up, the instant Pixar classic from last year, as the obvious winner for Best Animated Feature (though Fantastic Mr. Fox has a chance of swooping in), and the winner for Best Original Score. The fellow nominees here, which are The Informant!, Avatar, A Single Man, and Where The Wild Things Are, are all solid contenders, but there's just something sad and moving and memorable about the Up score, from Michael Giacchino, that gets me where it counts. I would assume, however, that the other movie that's got a strong chance is The Informant!, mostly because of the retro throwback courtesy of Marvin Hamlisch, an awards favorite. He's got a great chance here, and also at the Oscars.
For Best Screenplay, I would normally tell you to expect Quentin Tarantino will get a Golden Globe for his Inglourious Basterds script (and he's the easy second choice to me), but I'm picking the script for Up in the Air, written by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, to win. There's no question that Tarantino's work is as solid as ever in the World War II film, but I feel like the HFPA is going to mostly target a lot of award-winning wealth to one movie, Up in the Air. District 9, The Hurt Locker, and It's Complicated, the other three nominees, are all popular scripts, and the first two have been well-lauded; however, for the writers involved, it's an honor to be nominated. In my opinion, this one is between Reitman and Tarantino, and the wily Canuck is going to win this fight, despite being attacked by proverbial scalping devices. Reitman's not the safe choice, but sometimes, the risky choice is the right one.
With the Best Original Song and Best Foreign-Language Film categories, I'll be perfectly honest here: your guess is as good as mine. The latter category, featuring nominees Baaria - La Porta Del Vento, from Italy; Broken Embraces, from Spain; The Maid, from Chile; A Prophet, from France; and The White Ribbon, from Germany, is likely one that I'll get wrong. I've chosen A Prophet, which has been garnering amazing reviews. However, don't be shocked if Broken Embraces, from Pedro Almodovar, or The White Ribbon, from Michael Haneke, win. Both of these directors are very well-known in the States, and the latter film has been getting raves from most voices. For Best Original Song, I'm favoring "Cinema Italiano", if only because it's from Nine, and it's a song that crows about the beauty of being Italian. Talk about playing into someone's hand. That said, any of the five nominees, from movies such as Avatar, Crazy Heart, Brothers, and Everybody's Fine, could walk away with the trophy.