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So, as we wait for the Writers Guild to announce their likely-to-be-strange nominations, let's ponder a little more about the movies that are still in the race and the movies that may be dark horses. Next week, I'll take a look at some of the movies that can only hope to be dark horses, so ready your negative thinking caps on. First up, the top contenders. Though the Oscar season may have begun with the Harlem-set drama Precious as the film to beat, that movie's buzz has gotten a bit cold. Despite the fact that the film has made over $40 million at the box office, the crowds have lowered, focusing on bigger films, or more recent awards bait, such as Up in the Air. Yes, Precious should still get a Best Picture nod, along with nominations for (probably) Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay, but winning the big prize may not be in the cards.

As I've said in weeks past, the two main contenders right now, in terms of critical love, are The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air. The former film has the disadvantage of having been released in July, but has had consistent buzz among many critics on both sides of the country. Though its box-office take is pretty weak, having grossed under $20 million despite having a modest release, if Summit Entertainment turns focus from the insipid, ridiculous, and sexist Twilight franchise (address all hate mail, by the way, to me, if you feel the need) and continues to hammer Hollywood with ads for its Iraq War flick, The Hurt Locker should have a solid showing among Oscar nominations. However, its chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar may be dampened by the topic matter, which is not as downbeat as Precious, but not at all encouraging to those voters looking for uplifting material, or about moving away from Iraq War movies, which don't resonate with the public.

Will Up in the Air fill that void? Though it's not exactly the most happy-go-lucky Oscar contender, this comedy-drama starring George Clooney and Vera Farmiga has a few pluses on its side. Clooney, while not being the most successful movie star, is well-liked in the filmmaking community; the film's director, Jason Reitman, has already received an Oscar nomination, for 2007's Juno. Also, the general consensus among most people who have seen the film is positive. Finally, more than with The Hurt Locker, the concept, of a man who flies around the country so he can fire people from their jobs, the topic may hit home and in a less discomforting way. Maybe it's just that Clooney's so darn good-looking and charming that people can get behind his character, as opposed to wartime topicality.

But, and this is where I could be classified a nerd by those looking to throw around mean names, there is a very real possibility that another film will come along to dethrone both of these movies from getting the Best Picture Oscar. That movie is, of course, Avatar. The sci-fi epic from self-proclaimed king of the world James Cameron has grossed, as of January 3rd, over one billion dollars across the world, and topped the box office three weekends in a row, grossing at least $68 million each weekend. By the time this weekend is over, it will be number-one for a fourth time. Though it's not a guarantee of Oscar buzz, making that much money can only be good for the chances of this technologically impressive story. Add to that the almost completely positive reviews, and the likely respect the vast amount of Oscar voters who work in the below-the-line aspects of filmmaking have for the technological breakthroughs, and Avatar could be looking at a hefty number of nominations and trophies.

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