In Contention
By Josh Spiegel
January 8, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
But, before we begin our rundown of awards, a bit of odd and bad news. When you read next week's In Contention column, we're going to discuss, as I mentioned, the Writers Guild of America nominations. I'm warning you now so you don't find yourself with a quizzical look on your face for the entire week that a heaping helping of movies are not going to be among the WGA nominations. Moreover, when I say "a heaping helping of movies", I mean movies that have a strong shot at getting screenplay nominations at the Oscars. Some WGA-ineligible contenders are Up, In the Loop, District 9, Fantastic Mr. Fox, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, The Road, and A Single Man. You may have noted, and wisely, that a lot of these movies have a damn good chance the Oscars. Not at the WGAs, unfortunately.
Why? There are two big reasons: either the writers of those films are not WGA members (including, of all people, Quentin Tarantino, who's never been a WGA member), or those films' scripts were not made under the WGA's strict guidelines, and are thus ineligible. Does this mean anything for any of these films' chances at writing nods at the Academy Awards? No; they're all eligible to be nominated at the Oscars, and a majority of them will likely get those nods. I'm just trying my best to calm the wave of people throwing up their hands in disgust and/or confusion. If anything, we can all scratch our collective heads about why the WGA has such odd guidelines as to exclude so many potential nominees, but that's about it.
With that out of the way, let's get to the big news. The Directors Guild of America announced its awards on Thursday, the 7th, and there were no surprises here. The five nominees are Kathryn Bigelow, for The Hurt Locker; James Cameron, for Avatar; Lee Daniels, for Precious; Jason Reitman, for Up in the Air; and Quentin Tarantino, for Inglourious Basterds. In short, folks, don't be shocked if these are the five directors and films that are the frontrunners at the Oscars for Best Director and Best Picture. There's no question that all of the films have a major shot at the big prize. Before these two guilds announced, there was some skepticism about Daniels' shot at getting an Oscar nod, but the DGA seems to have solidified their choices.
Granted, Daniels still may end up losing out at a shot for Oscar. Only once in the past ten years has the Directors' Guild nominees matched up with those in the Oscars, for Best Director. In 2006, all five nominees matched, but aside from that, there's been plenty of minor disagreements. How is it that the directors end up voting differently? Who's to say for sure, but sometimes, the Academy's influence can be all-encompassing. Also, though Daniels has the weakest hold on a nomination (some prognosticators thought Neill Blomkamp, of District 9, or J.J. Abrams, of Star Trek could have pulled off a DGA nod), he's as likely to get in as his fellow nominees. Right now, though, these five films and helmers seem to be the probable frontrunners. Place your bets.
The other big guild to announce is the Producers Guild of America, which, like the Academy Awards, has chosen to expand its list of Best Picture nominees from five to ten. This year, their Best Picture nominees are, in alphabetical order, Avatar, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Invictus,"Precious, Star Trek, Up, and Up in the Air. Before any of the fanboys in the room (and, to be fair, I'd have a similar reaction) go nuts with shock and delight, the likelihood is slim that the three big science-fiction films are all going to get Best Picture Oscar nominations. Now, don't get me wrong: Star Trek and District 9, previously considered dark horses of a kind, have gotten a big boost from the PGAs.
District 9, in particular, is potentially going to be the victor of the dark horse contenders here. On the one hand, it's a wild action movie about aliens and humans. On the other hand, it's from a first-time director, it was made on the cheap, it was produced by a previous Oscar winner, it made a lot of money, it was well-liked, and, most importantly, it has an underlying subtext. As much as I loved Star Trek, that was not a movie with a lot of hidden ideas. District 9, however, can claim to having been connected to the apartheid struggle in South Africa, and is such a well-written piece of entertainment that it may sneak through into the Academy Awards. There's a lot of hype for the script and its technical achievements, as well, so don't be shocked if this tiny, faux-documentary actioner is in the top ten.
Aside from Star Trek and District 9, the other eight PGA nominees have a lot of heat behind them, collectively. The other big news from these nominees was what wasn't on the list: Nine, the big, splashy musical from Chicago director Rob Marshall and producer Harvey Weinstein. Though the movie still has a chance of getting into the Best Picture list (one should never discount Weinstein's clout), the PGA was likely to be its biggest supporter among the guilds. The actors in the Academy could also back the film, but its tepid box office and reception from critics is proving too negative. Nine is looking like a flop in other respects, so its awards chances are getting very low. But, who knows? Harvey Weinstein could get a thank-you card from Captain Kirk.
So, as we wait for the Writers Guild to announce their likely-to-be-strange nominations, let's ponder a little more about the movies that are still in the race and the movies that may be dark horses. Next week, I'll take a look at some of the movies that can only hope to be dark horses, so ready your negative thinking caps on. First up, the top contenders. Though the Oscar season may have begun with the Harlem-set drama Precious as the film to beat, that movie's buzz has gotten a bit cold. Despite the fact that the film has made over $40 million at the box office, the crowds have lowered, focusing on bigger films, or more recent awards bait, such as Up in the Air. Yes, Precious should still get a Best Picture nod, along with nominations for (probably) Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay, but winning the big prize may not be in the cards.
As I've said in weeks past, the two main contenders right now, in terms of critical love, are The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air. The former film has the disadvantage of having been released in July, but has had consistent buzz among many critics on both sides of the country. Though its box-office take is pretty weak, having grossed under $20 million despite having a modest release, if Summit Entertainment turns focus from the insipid, ridiculous, and sexist Twilight franchise (address all hate mail, by the way, to me, if you feel the need) and continues to hammer Hollywood with ads for its Iraq War flick, The Hurt Locker should have a solid showing among Oscar nominations. However, its chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar may be dampened by the topic matter, which is not as downbeat as Precious, but not at all encouraging to those voters looking for uplifting material, or about moving away from Iraq War movies, which don't resonate with the public.
Will Up in the Air fill that void? Though it's not exactly the most happy-go-lucky Oscar contender, this comedy-drama starring George Clooney and Vera Farmiga has a few pluses on its side. Clooney, while not being the most successful movie star, is well-liked in the filmmaking community; the film's director, Jason Reitman, has already received an Oscar nomination, for 2007's Juno. Also, the general consensus among most people who have seen the film is positive. Finally, more than with The Hurt Locker, the concept, of a man who flies around the country so he can fire people from their jobs, the topic may hit home and in a less discomforting way. Maybe it's just that Clooney's so darn good-looking and charming that people can get behind his character, as opposed to wartime topicality.
But, and this is where I could be classified a nerd by those looking to throw around mean names, there is a very real possibility that another film will come along to dethrone both of these movies from getting the Best Picture Oscar. That movie is, of course, Avatar. The sci-fi epic from self-proclaimed king of the world James Cameron has grossed, as of January 3rd, over one billion dollars across the world, and topped the box office three weekends in a row, grossing at least $68 million each weekend. By the time this weekend is over, it will be number-one for a fourth time. Though it's not a guarantee of Oscar buzz, making that much money can only be good for the chances of this technologically impressive story. Add to that the almost completely positive reviews, and the likely respect the vast amount of Oscar voters who work in the below-the-line aspects of filmmaking have for the technological breakthroughs, and Avatar could be looking at a hefty number of nominations and trophies.
Avatar, though, is not the only movie that could sneak up behind The Hurt Locker or Up in the Air, give the movies metaphorical wedgies, and steal their collective lunch money. Another movie to keep a good eye on is Inglourious Basterds, the dazzling return to form (yes, I'm that guy who thinks the Kill Bill movies are overrated, hi!) of writer-director Quentin Tarantino. Though it is (spoiler alert) an alternate history of how World War II transpired, having the war as a topic is a boon to Tarantino, who's already won an Oscar for writing and been nominated as a director. Many people saw Inglourious Basterds as his best film since Pulp Fiction, and certainly one that Oscar voters would be more willing to nominate. Unlike with Avatar, a film with acting that hasn't received many raves, this movie has an extensive ensemble, including the brilliant Christoph Waltz, Brad Pitt, and Diane Kruger.
The support that Inglourious Basterds will have from not only below-the-line voters but also actors (the Screen Actors Guild, as mentioned in previous articles, nominated Waltz, Kruger, and the ensemble) is extremely important. While Avatar may have (dare I make such a bold claim?) topped the domestic box-office record currently held by Titanic by the time March 7th comes around, a near-unanimous amount of support for Inglourious Basterds may push it across the finish line. Now, of course, I'm operating under the easily-incorrect assumption that the Academy voters will have, for the time being, acquiesced to the idea that the Best Picture winner should be more popular, not just its fellow nominees. There's a very easy chance that a movie like An Education or The Hurt Locker or A Serious Man could sneak in and win everything, let alone be nominated.