Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
May 13, 2009
Vulcans own mutants.Kim Hollis: Wolverine opened $10 million higher than Star Trek, but fell 68% in its second weekend. Which movie will make more in the long haul, Wolverine or Star Trek?
Josh Spiegel: Star Trek, easily. The second weekend drop for Wolverine was almost identical to the drop X-Men: The Last Stand had, which doesn't bode well for it getting to $200 million, let alone $235 million. The reviews for Star Trek are overwhelmingly positive, audiences are eating it up (there was massive applause at the end of the screening I saw yesterday), and the next big blockbuster movie to come out is really Terminator Salvation (sorry, Tom Hanks and Ron Howard). Though Star Trek will have competition next week from Angels & Demons, I don't think it'll be as fierce. That alone will help the film make more money in its second week.
David Mumpower: When I responded to this, I didn't have actuals yet, so I couldn't do as accurate a calculation as I would like on Wolverine. My current guesstimate is a result between $165-$175 million. If we consider the downside of Star Trek as being a heavily frontloaded fanboy film, this is an interesting discussion. If this were any randomly named action/sci-fi franchise with this sort of word-of-mouth and rapturous reviews, however, we would be expecting extreme legs. I'm inclined to believe that is the case here. I do not expect this Trek to behave like previous ones or other fanboy titles. I think it's going to have some staying power and it even has a decent chance at $200 million. We'll know if this thought process is correct or not in only seven days. Right now, I'm betting on Kirk and Spock over Singy-Dancy Jackman.
Pete Kilmer: Word-of-mouth on these projects will be the deciding factor. With the way 20th Century Fox has managed to bungle the Wolverine project and really aggravate the fanbase of the character with a stunningly average movie, I throughly expect Wolverine to fade fairly quickly. Star Trek, on the other hand, has terrific word-of-mouth and can make it to 200 million. Of course, that's going to be tough when Terminator opens.
Tim Briody: Star Trek, without doubt or question.
Max Braden: I could see them being close, but I'm comfortable betting on Star Trek.
Reagen Sulewski: While Trek is going to do better than a lot of other blockbustery films in terms of legs, you still have to qualify that - staying power in this case is $40 million or better next weekend. If it manages that, you're on your way to $200 milllion. Terminator shouldn't hurt either film all that much since Memorial Day is a "big tent" weekend, allowing people to catch multiple films, but they're both going to start losing screens shortly after. Right now I'm laying 3:2 odds on Star Trek.
Sean Collier: It's a close battle. But Star Trek's positive word-of-mouth could mean long legs - at least a long stay in the top ten - which would push it ahead.
Jamie Ruccio: Given the near universal praise for Star Trek, which stands at 96% fresh at RT, I don't think it's even close...Star Trek in a walk. Had I been around this weekend I would have gone to see it again after seeing it on Friday. And given the near universal disappointment in X-Men Origins: Wolverine I don't think there's any doubt which film takes in more.