Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
By BOP Staff
May 13, 2009
2009=$$$Kim Hollis: We're now two releases in on the summer juggernauts so far. How have the box office performances of Wolverine and Star Trek impacted your expectations for the rest of the summer?
Josh Spiegel: I would expect something of a comparable summer performance to last year, if not a bit better. The bigger word-of-mouth movie will most likely be Star Trek, but when a movie as panned as Wolverine makes $85 million, you can tell people are ready for the big movies. I'd be very surprised if movies like Terminator: Salvation, Night at the Museum 2, Up, and Transformers 2 don't rake in lots of cash.
Pete Kilmer: And look for one or two dark horses to become big movies as well. It should be a great summer for movies.
David Mumpower: I had expected both of these films to do generally what they did on opening weekend. Star Trek did a few million more, but nothing has happened here that wasn't generally expected (unless you're Max, who is 0-2 in a rather epic way thus far). What Star Trek reinforces is that IMAX titles clean up, which is something we already knew. Every new piece of empirical data drives this home. All of the titles that get IMAX and 3-D money are going to need their estimates bumped up a bit. Other than that, the only real surprises thus far exist in terms of quality. Star Trek has that in spades. As for Wolverine...well, a better effort had been expected.
Tim Briody: No, this is pretty much expected. Both were in the wheelhouse of where I'd pictured them, with Trek getting the "holy crap it's good" bump that's always worth a couple million on opening weekend.
Max Braden: I think I was off on both because I was stuck in the past and ignoring the current buzz that was available for all to see. With a project like Star Trek I always think back to the re-release of Star Wars in 1997. There were fanboy proclamations of "biggest box office ever" with its second run outgrossing the first, but of course it never came near anything like that. I still think the winning prophets got a little lucky with Star Trek; had Wolverine been a hit with really strong reviews, a decent second weekend would have cut into Star Trek's opening more. In any case, I think the big movies of the summer will be more predictable.
Sean Collier: I think, continuing a trend we saw in the early part of the year, we're going to see more successful films than last year but fewer preposterously successful films - a lot in the $100-$200 million range, not too many above that. But yes, indeed - exciting things ahead.
Yes, another movie opened. You can't be expected to know this.Kim Hollis: Something called Next Day Air opened to $4 million this weekend. Say something funny about Next Day Air.
David Mumpower: It absolutely, positively had to be out of theaters overnight.
Tim Briody: Turk, if you needed money that badly, you just had to ask.
Max Braden: "Would you like delivery confirmation?" "No, thanks."
Josh Spiegel: Next Day Air is a package that's better off being lost and never delivered.
Sean Collier: Congratulations! You tried to make a comedy, and it got beat by the second freakin' weekend of Ghosts of Girlfriends Past. You have failed utterly.
Ben Farrow: Someone more clever than me could figure out how to work a Cast Away reference into Next Day Air. I guess I shouldn't have done all that glue back in high school.
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