One Month Out: Part Three

By BOP Staff

April 17, 2009

Callista Flockhart three years from now.

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Joel Corcoran: Before I saw the last trailer, I was close to giving up on Terminator Salvation entirely. But now, think it'll end up being a decent success. It should end up being a satisfying ending to the Terminator story, or a great bridge into handing the continuing story over to television in Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. If it is a better movie than the trailers make it out to be, however, it could end up breaking the $200 million threshold, particularly because it will be the only true action movie at the box office for three weeks (until The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 comes out on June 12th). I think the chances of that happening are very small - a more likely result is something around a $150 million domestic gross - but we've seen stranger things happen at the box office.

Max Braden: I think this is going to be huge. It has all the visual appeal of Transformers (which finished over $300 million) with the gritty nature of The Dark Knight (which grossed even more). Bale has great recognition thanks to Batman, and the Terminator is a proven series. I expect at least $200 million for its run.

Jim Van Nest: I wish I could be with Max on this one, but I don't think I can. Given the fact that apparently I'm the only one watching the Sarah Connor Chronicles...the Terminator story may be in trouble. The Chronicles have been so good, in my opinion, that Terminator Salvation is at the top of MY must-see list, but I fear there won't be enough folks like me out there to make this a super huge success. I'm with the others and can see a $150 million finish for this one. But I'd be thrilled to see it break out, if for no other reason that to make Fox wake up and realize they need to re-up the Chronicles and move it to a better night.




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Reagen Sulewski: T3 had every look of being a cheap cash-in (although it wasn't), and Salvation actually looks like it's trying, plus it's the future apocalypse world that people have been wanting to see ever since the first film. I see this breaking out to a large degree, with potentially a $250 million finish.

Kim Hollis: Yeah, I think you people who are saying $150 million are insane. This movie is going to be huge. The trailers look seriously great, and Christian Bale has lots and lots of goodwill carryover thanks to The Dark Knight. Simply put, this movie has *everything* going for it - awesome looking effects, a solid, recognizable star, and a movement of the story to the fireworks factory. I think it has a shot at as much as $300 million, particularly if it's good.

David Mumpower: When Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines came out, I understood everyone's reticence to expect great things from the film. The Matrix sequels were receiving all of the hype and it seemed as if the man against machine premise had been co-opted by a competitor. It speaks volumes that in spite of any real hype, T3 earned $150 million domestically and over $430 million worldwide. As a good movie, it also reminded consumers that a dozen years later, the Terminator premise was still sound. Now, a new movie starring the title character from the number two movie of all time strikes me as the type of serendipitous "right role at the right time" that happens once a generation or so. Christian Bale as John Connor is a masterstroke of casting, and I am firmly convinced that this film is poised to be the Transformers of 2009, even over the actual Transformers sequel. I fully expect that if Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince does not win the summer, it will be Terminator Salvation that does. T2's $204 million in 1991 inflation adjusts to $350 million in 2009. I don't think T4 quite gets to that level, but I am expecting something north of $250 million. To my mind, this is the juggernaut on the May schedule.


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