March 2009 Forecast
By David Mumpower
March 6, 2009
Monsters vs. Aliens
Given the above, the question becomes whether I believe Monsters vs. Aliens will do well enough to beat $140 million, and I have to say that I came very close to picking yes on this topic. The only thing that held me back is the recent over-saturation of CGI animation films. I do not quite see this adorable-looking title as being novel enough to perform to that level in spite of its marketing focus upon the 3-D aspects of the production. This is the first original Real-D CGI-animated release that has focused upon the emerging technology from the start. We saw with Coraline's shocking success how much of a draw this can be and DreamWorks Animation is certainly on a hot streak right now after a dynamic 2008 that saw them excel with Kung Fu Panda and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa. Those films combine for domestic revenue of roughly $400 million. Despite this, I see Monsters vs. Aliens as being more in line with Bee Movie's $126.6 million, an impressive result but not quite up to the company's 2008 standards. This is as it should be since they are so shamelessly aping Pixar's Monsters, Inc.
Race to Witch Mountain
I remember a time when every discussion of Disney family films included the Witch Mountain franchise. This occurred during the halcyon days of my youth, an era before Kim Richards was best known as a reformed child actress whose niece is Paris Hilton. Back in those days, Richards seemed so pure and untouchable. Then, she showed her boobies in Tuff Turf and none of us who had placed her so high on a pedestal could ever look at her the same way again. Of course, she went away after that, so we couldn't have looked at her again, even if we had any interest in doing so. Fast forward to 2009 and Disney has taken their popular family franchise out of mothballs, thrown in a heaping dose of The Rock and decided that it's time to make a lot of money off of a safe story regarding the plight of teen aliens on the run from nefarious government agents. It's going to work, too. I think this one opens north of $35 million and makes right at $100 million during its domestic run.
I Love You, Man
This could have been based on the circumstances surrounding my lavish church wedding. I wish I were joking but I am not. One of my friends couldn't take the hint that my father would be my best man. He kept auditioning for several months. I am proud of the compassion and patience I showed by never running him over with a bus. Anyway, I mentioned in describing my Calvins ballot that I thought Jason Segel really put himself on the map with Forgetting Sarah Marshall. His comedy tag team partner here just had similar success with Role Models, and that is the film whose box office model I expect to be followed here. Bromance is in at the box office these days.