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Weekend Forecast for August 10-12, 2007

By Reagen Sulewski

August 10, 2007

I take it back! Orange is a flattering color for you!

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Daddy Day Camp opened on Wednesday, and it may be enough to kill a recent trend in Hollywood these days, the spin-off movie. Branching off from Eddie Murphy's success in Daddy Day Care, Day Camp inserts Cuba Gooding, Jr. as the lead, as a father who takes the father-run daycare idea of Murphy's film and takes it into the wilderness.

The fact that Cuba Gooding, Jr. has an Oscar grows more and more surreal as the years role on, let alone that studios are still desperate enough to cast him in lead roles. The opening day of just $773,000 cratered so badly, China complained. If there's such a thing as "angry indifference", Daddy Day Camp has found it in its reception. A charitable read gives it about $3.5 million on the weekend.

Amazingly, this is not the most abandoned new film of the weekend. That infamous title goes to the surprisingly-not-porn Skinwalkers, a werewolf-themed action-horror film that's been moved around on the calendar more than Chanukah. Superficially resembling Underworld and The Covenant, Skinwalkers stars a few people you might recognize, but basically no one you know. Opening in just 737 screens and without being reviewed for critics, it's a film its studio, After Dark Films, apparently is trying to keep a secret. Expect a sub-$2 million opening weekend.

Expanding into moderate release is Becoming Jane, a fictionalized story of a young Jane Austen and her early romance. Anne Hathaway stars as Jane, with James McAvoy (recently of The Last King of Scotland), as the rakish Thomas Lefroy, who would be the model for Mr. Darcy. Becoming Jane takes a bit of a cue from Shakespeare in Love in blending legend and truth to capture an era, though it's received only mediocre reviews. Expanding to approximately 600 theaters after opening in 100, it should have a weekend of around $3 million.




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The Bourne Ultimatum set the August opening weekend record with just a hair short of $70 million, a strong improvement on the opening weekend of The Bourne Supremacy, and cementing Jason Bourne as the top cinematic spy of the moment. Easily one of the best action films in recent years and potentially one of the best of this year on its own merits, Ultimatum has a strong shot at some legs. For a sequel action film, this concept has to be adjusted for expectations, so a second weekend of $40 million would be quite a strong showing.

The Simpsons Movie proved to be one of the more front-loaded films of the year, to no real surprise. Shedding a full two-thirds of its opening weekend to fall to second place, it has still earned over $140 million. I don't expect it to drop that much again this weekend, as the drop was due to fanboy enthusiasm and not quality, though it's not going to become leggy by any means. Give it $11 million this weekend, which will push it over the $150 million milestone.

Underdog maintains the family film crown by default with Daddy Day Camp's utter failure to track, and it has a decent shot at keeping a lot of the eight-year-old crowd. A decent midweek showing points to a weekend figure of around $7 million for its second weekend.

Elsewhere in the box office, we have I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry ready to pass the $100 million plateau, and Transformers due to become the historic fourth $300 million film of the year. Seems like you can't throw a rock without hitting a milestone in this record-breaking summer.


Forecast: Weekend of August 10-12, 2007
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Rush Hour 3 3,778 New 62.4
2 The Bourne Ultimatum 3,687 +27 40.2
3 The Simpsons Movie 3,552 -374 11.3
4 Stardust 2,640 New 10.9
5 Underdog 3,013 0 6.8
6 I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry 2,798 -491 5.9
7 Hairspray 2,805 -310 5.0
8 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 2,585 -540 4.9
9 No Reservations 2,053 -372 3.8
10 Daddy Day Camp 2,332 New 3.5

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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