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August 2007 Forecast

By Michael Bentley

August 3, 2007

Wait, you're the *real* McLovin?

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After an explosive first three months of Summer 2007, with numerous record-setting feats, it will strange to go back to a relatively normal month of movies. Barring a miracle, there will be no $100 million openers and no final numbers above $300 million. But there are still several movies likely to attract significant interest from audiences, including the third entries in the Jason Bourne and Rush Hour franchises, the remake of a classic horror film, and several comedies.

1) The Bourne Ultimatum

For many folks the most anticipated movie of the summer wasn't one of the uber-blockbusters like Spider-Man 3, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, or Transformers. It was The Bourne Ultimatum, the third in the successful action series about superspy Jason Bourne after The Bourne Identity and The Bourne Supremacy. While Identity was a pretty good success for Universal, it wasn't until the second entry in the franchise that Bourne arguably eclipsed the legendary James Bond as cinema's top spy. The Bourne Supremacy debuted to more than $52 million on its way to a very robust $176 million. Figure on Ultimatum to exceed that by a small amount, and a fury of calls to star Matt Damon's agent as the studio works out a deal for a fourth film.

Opening weekend prediction: $59 million.




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2) Rush Hour 3

The prototypical modern-day buddy action-comedy is Rush Hour, starring Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker. Nine years ago the first Rush Hour was a bit of a surprise success, as it grossed $33 million domestic in its opening weekend and a final tally of some $141 million. The sequel, Rush Hour 2, was even bigger. The behemoth scored a mind-boggling $67 million on its way to $226 million. For various reasons a followup did not happen right away, but six years later, here we are. However, it has been a relatively long time since part two, and unlike certain other franchises, I'm not totally sure that Chan and Tucker can maintain that high-level of super-success that they have achieved. Still, it'll be hard to bet against them. In fact, Tucker is so sure of the bet that he literally hasn't worked in the six years since the last one.

Opening weekend: $49 million.


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