August 2007 Forecast
By Michael Bentley
August 3, 2007
I've heard several people loosely tossing around American Pie comparisons with Superbad. Since American Pie crashed onto the scene in 1999 (has it really been almost a decade??), a number of movies have tried to emulate it, but none have succeeded. Co-written by Seth Rogen, fresh off scoring a huge hit with Knocked Up, Superbad certainly has some cred behind it. And with a smart marketing campaign, which has included the use of an online-only "red band" R-rated trailer, a lot of people are buzzing about this. Heck, when "McLovin" becomes part of the cultural lexicon before the movie even opens, you know something big is a-coming.
Opening weekend: $35 million.
4) The Invasion
Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig star in this remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers - which has already been remade before, most notably in the 1978 version starring Donald Sutherland. The story is about a psychiatrist (Kidman) who learns that a mysterious epidemic is alien-related. One thing that has me intrigued by this movie is that it is directed by Oliver Hirschbiegel . No doubt most moviegoers are unfamiliar with that name, but he directed Downfall, the brilliant and complex story of Adolph Hitler's final days.
While Craig is still relatively new to the big-budget movie game, besides Spielberg's Munich and Casino Royale of course, Kidman has been in her fair share of notable movies. She has had mixed success as a lead, but perhaps the strongest comparison with The Invasion is The Interpreter. In that adult thriller she co-starred with Sean Penn and the film made nearly $23 million in its opening frame. I expect similar results for The Invasion, as it should be a good adult drama to close out the summer season.
Opening weekend: $21 million.