Daily Box Office Analysis for June 13, 2007

By David Mumpower

June 14, 2007

Sure, fella. If we leave out three other movies, you're totally number one.

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The focus of today's analysis will be Surf's Up, but before we get to that, let's take a look at the top of the charts. Ocean's Thirteen finishes in first place for the sixth consecutive day, but it once again sees a significant slide of 8.7% to $3,442,280. This is particularly troubling when we consider 60% of the top ten either showed no noticeable change from Tuesday to Wednesday or improved some. Part of this is the fact that it's targeting an older audience that does not have the same free time during the summer that many of the other top ten titles do.

If we circle back to last week's discussion, Knocked Up showed the same behavior, sliding 11.8%. I am still troubled by the fact that each one of Knocked Up's initial weekdays has surpassed those of Ocean's Thirteen. The Seth Rogen comedy earned $3,631,815 last Wednesday, a 5.5% better performance than the George Clooney action heist has managed. In fact, its Monday-to-Wednesday total of $12,187,395 is 6.7% better than the $11,367,630 Ocean's Thirteen has managed in the same time frame this week despite the fact that Knocked Up opened $5.4 million lower.

Ocean's Thirteen is also unlikely to see the same holdover next week as Knocked Up is showing right now. It earned another $2,445,225 yesterday, down only 4.4% from Tuesday. As you can see when we combine the two thoughts, Knocked Up is holding over better in its second set of weekdays than it did in its first. I had predicted two days ago that it would be right at $75 million after tomorrow's box office. The reality is that it's going to be a million dollars past that, which might not seem like much, but it's an important early warning signal for future behavior. Knocked Up's staying power continues to impress.


If we compare Ocean's Thirteen to the prior two Danny Ocean movies, here is how it stands. Ocean's Eleven fell 18.1% to $2.89 million on its first Wednesday. Its box office at that point was $47.6 million, almost identical to the $47.5 million Ocean's Thirteen has earned in its first six days. Bringing Ocean's Twelve into the discussion, it fell 13.0% to $2.61 million. A running total of $47.8 million puts it slightly ahead of the other two movies. Given the shaky quality of Ocean's Twelve, who woulda thunk it would still be in the lead after almost a week? Obviously, the performances are in the eye of the beholder but as I said yesterday, I am skeptical that Ocean's Thirteen shows the staying power of the prior two movies in the franchise. I received a couple of comments that it's too early to write off a $100 million performance and I completely agree on the point. I am simply saying that when I run the long term numbers, the odds are worse than a coin flip that it crosses that threshold.

The news for Surf's Up is better although we have to remember that everything is relative. This Sony CGI penguin movie - not to be confused with the Warner Bros. CGI penguin flick, Happy Feet - started with a mediocre $17.6 million opening weekend. Its weekday totals, however, have seemed pretty good upon first glance. It earned $1,856,465 on Monday then increased to $1,927,264 and $1,943,223 on Tuesday and Wednesday. As we saw last week, films are expected to decline throughout the week, so the thought process would be that Surf's Up is already exceeding expectations, right? Let's take a look.

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