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Daily Box Office Analysis for June 13, 2007

By David Mumpower

June 14, 2007

Sure, fella. If we leave out three other movies, you're totally number one.

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The other two comparisons I find useful for Surf's Up are The Barnyard and The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl in 3-D. Both of these summer releases opened lower than Surf's Up. Let's see how they hold up relative to percentage holdovers on their first three weekdays. The Barnyard opened to $15.8 million, 10.2% lower than Surf's Up. Its first three weekdays of box office are much more impressive, though. Its first Monday was $2,233,919, almost $400,000 higher than the penguin movie. It then fell 8.6% to $2.04 million on its first Tuesday followed by 6.8% to $1.90 million on Wednesday. That means that its actual box office for the three days, $6,177,474, exceeds the $5,726,952 Surf's Up has managed straight up before we adjust for its opening 10% lower. Yeah, that's not good.

Let's try again with Sharkboy and Lavagirl. The ambitious Robert Rodriguez movie opened the same June weekend as Surf's Up in 2005. It earned a paltry $12.6 million, 28.6% lower than the surfing penguin movie. So, the weekdays should be a lot lower, right? Here's some good news for Surf's Up. They are. The 3-D kiddie movie earned $1.21 million on its first Monday, fell 5.4% to $1.15 million on Tuesday then increased 4.8% back to $1.20 million on its first Wednesday. Its combined first three weekdays of box office of $3,555,000 represents only 28.3% of its opening weekend. Meanwhile, Surf's Up is at 32.5%, so we have found a movie model it exceeds. Then again, The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl in 3-D managed final box office of only $39.2 million, so it's troubling that this is the comparison that second most closely matches Surf's Up.




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There is, however, a wonderful silver lining here. The movie that most closely matches Surf's Up is Garfield, a movie whose final domestic box office of $75.4 million is represents a multiplier of 3.47 from its opening weekend of $21.7 million. If Surf's Up shows legs to that degree, it will wind up with domestic box office of roughly $61.2 million. That's not great by any stretch, but it's also not the disaster many box office analysts were predicting it to be. We'll see if it continues to hold over at a Garfield pace in coming days.

After earning $14,068,392 on Tuesday, overall box office falls 3.7% to $13,541,656 on Wednesday. You can tell we are starting to enter the meat of the summer as this is significant improvement from last Wednesday's decline of 8%. We are starting to see carry-over strength in the family friendly top ten titles I mentioned yesterday. All of those showed impressive strength, with only the front-loaded horror film, Hostel: Part II, and the older adult-skewing Ocean's Thirteen faltering significantly.


Daily Box Office for Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Rank Film Distributor Daily Gross Daily Change Weekly Change Running Total
1 Ocean's Thirteen Warner Bros. $3,442,280 - 8.7% N/A $47,501,033
2 Knocked Up Universal $2,445,225 - 4.4% - 32.7% $73,559,735
3 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Walt Disney Pictures $2,010,222 - 3.2% - 42.2% $259,697,522
4 Surf's Up Sony/Columbia $1,943,223 + 0.8% N/A $23,367,201
5 Shrek the Third DreamWorks $1,703,265 + 1.0% - 31.9% $286,485,097
6 Hostel: Part II Lionsgate $697,767 - 10.7% N/A $10,575,837
7 Mr. Brooks MGM $511,301 + 0.2% - 42.0% $20,130,367
8 Spider-Man 3 Sony/Columbia $482,609 + 2.0% - 32.2% $327,010,825
9 Waitress Fox Searchlight $225,764 + 7.3% - 4.2% $12,593,671
10 Gracie Picturehouse $80,000 + 6.7% - 46.7% $2,688,515
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations



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