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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

March 31, 2007

Maybe Vince McMahon should challenge him to a hair shave-off.

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Even the French judge would give Blades of Glory a 9.0 based on its Friday performance.

Blades of Glory

The heavily-advertised Will Ferrell/Jon Heder ice skating comedy earned $12 million on Friday, $6 million below what Talladega Nights opened with back in August, but slightly ahead of Anchorman's opening night of $10.7 million from 2004. Both films were summer releases, but both had weekend multipliers around 2.6, signaling that there's a decent fanboy following for both Ferrell and Heder (his last big comedy was last year's The Benchwarmers, opening with $6.8 million on its way to $19.6 million, a 2.88 multiplier). Since Blades of Glory is a spring release, Benchwarmers is oddly the best comparison for it rather than the summer releases that the movies of Ricky Bobby and Ron Burgundy saw. I'll give it a 2.85 multiplier for the weekend, placing Blades of Glory at the top with a solid $34.2 million.

Meet the Robinsons

The also heavily-marketed animated film from Disney landed solidly in second with $7.5 million on Friday. Bridge to Terabithia has run its course and TMNT and The Last Mimzy have been kneecapped (more on that in a bit), so this is solidly the number one family option out there and it's going to cash in over the rest of the weekend. A weekend estimate of about $27 million should be in the cards for Meet the Robinsons this weekend, with very good legs over the next couple of weekends.




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Notable Holdovers

It's kind of hard to qualify any of last weekend's six wide releases as notable. Last week's champ, TMNT, suffers one of the largest Friday-to-Friday declines in a good while, dropping 71% from last Friday. In fact, of the five out of the six still in the top ten, the best holdover from the previous Friday is Shooter, off a mere 48%.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Blades of Glory 34.2
2 Meet the Robinsons 27.1
3 300 11.1
4 Wild Hogs 8.4
5 Shooter 8.3
6 TMNT 7.7
7 Premonition 5.0
8 Reign Over Me 3.9
9 The Last Mimzy 3.8
10 The Hills Have Eyes II 3.7

     


 
 

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