Friday Box Office Estimates
By Tim Briody
October 8, 2005
In the biggest shuffle in the top ten in quite a while, this weekend's five new releases all land in the top six spots.
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse Of the Were-Rabbit
The stop-motion animated duo may have the wrong trousers, but they found the right box office Friday. A $4.1 million first-day take easily takes the top spot. It's a bit off from the $5.6 million Chicken Run opened with back in August of 2000, but that was still late summer. Chicken Run had a 3.08 multiplier on its opening weekend, and Wallace & Gromit should have something very similar to that. A 3.1 multiplier would give The Curse of the Were-Rabbit $12.7 million for the weekend.
In Her Shoes
The Cameron Diaz/Toni Collette chick flick earned a respectible $3 million Friday. Not exactly having the rush-out-and-see-it-opening night audience, it should perform fairly well over the remainder of the weekend. Let's give it a 3.0 weekend multiplier, good for a $9 million weekend.
Two for the Money
The Al Pacino/Matthew McConaughey thriller that had advertisements during every sporting event that has been televised for the last month earned a shade under $3 million Friday. Males, the target audience, are going to continue watching real sports instead of opting for seeing this film despite the decent cast. A 2.8 weekend multiplier gives the scenery-chewer a $8.4 million weekend total.
The Gospel
On less than 1,000 screens, the Screen Gems release earned an impressive $2.6 million. A film with a similar audience, Diary of a Mad Black Woman, opened at the top with $21.9 million back in February and managed a 2.96 weekend multiplier along the way. That seems a natural fit for The Gospel, which would place it at around a $7.7 million weekend take.
Waiting
The Office Space-meets-Clerks film from Lions Gate also opened decently on just 1,652 screens, earning $2.1 million Friday. The obvious cult-appeal here will hurt its weekend multiplier, but likely ensures a decent life on DVD over the next few years. Call it a 2.7 multiplier for the weekend, giving Waiting $5.7 million for the weekend.
Notable Holdovers
In its third weekend, Flightplan relinquishes the top spot but holds well in the wake of the five new openers, down only 31.4% from week ago. Figure around $10 million this weekend.
Serenity doesn't fare so well in its second weekend as it falls a very hard 59.9% from last Friday. It's doubtful the weekend decline will go under 50%, so figure around $4.5 million for the Joss Whedon film.
Into the Blue only falls 37.4% from last Friday, but that's really because it didn't have all that far to fall to begin with. A 35% decline gives the Paul Walker/Jessica Alba movie about $4.6 million.
A History of Violence falls 40% from a week ago, mostly thanks to its solid word-of-mouth. It's decline may get as low as 30%, so a weekend total somewhere in the vicinity of $5.5 million looks to be in store.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
|
12.7
|
|
2
|
Flightplan
|
10.1
|
|
3
|
In Her Shoes
|
9.0
|
|
4
|
Two for the Money
|
8.4
|
|
5
|
Gospel
|
7.7
|
|
6
|
The Corpse Bride
|
6.0
|
|
7
|
Waiting
|
5.7
|
|
8
|
A History of Violence
|
5.5
|
|
9
|
Into the Blue
|
4.6
|
|
10
|
Serenity
|
4.5
|
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