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Weekend Forecast for May 26-28, 2017

By Reagen Sulewski

May 26, 2017

The poster lies.

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An unusual Thursday opening complicates things for Baywatch, which is clearly attempting some sort of five-day strategy to be declared the box office champ. A tongue-in-cheek adaptation of the '90s TV series known best for slow motion running and familiarizing Pamela Anderson, Baywatch seems to be aping the 21 Jump Street model by being all self-aware. Dwayne Johnson and Zac Efron star respectively as the star lifeguard of the beach and the hot shot new (and slightly dim) recruit, clashing with each other's styles until they find themselves in the middle of a criminal plot.

That lifeguards aren't exactly police isn't something that the film shies away from, and the ridiculousness of the film's premise is part of the appeal. We are talking about a movie based on a show whose main audience was horny man-children, after all. And so the film also relies on boobs and boobs-adjacent humor to sell itself, bringing on Alexandra Daddario and Kelly Rohrbach as female eye-candy, and constructing a weird plot about a real estate developer (Priyanka Chopra). What's missing here is the talent behind the screen, and Phil Miller and Christopher Lord were the real reasons behind why 21 Jump Street worked beyond all reason. One need look no further than this year's CHiPS for an example of how this tone can turn horribly, horribly wrong. Like that film, it adds in a bunch of filler dick jokes as a substitute for cleverness, playing a “kidding not kidding” game with its audience.

And yet, it may succeed despite this and terrible reviews. Johnson is on top of his game right now, while Efron has shown a talent at playing the lovable doofus (though two Neighbors films ended up being one too many). Based on previous adaptations and other work from the cast, this should manage about $31 million this weekend, or $38 million over the holiday.




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Alien: Covenant snuck out a win last weekend with $36 million, but that's a figure that has to be troubling in comparison with Prometheus' start of over $50 million. Even adding the Alien name directly couldn't stop the damage from that prequel's bad reception. I'd expect a large drop off to around $14 million this weekend, or $17 million over the holiday.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 crossed the $300 million mark last weekend and seems destined to challenge Ultron for second place among the Marvel Universe movies, though that may be a tough sell. It may just have to settle for around $425 million domestic, and become the fifth Marvel movie to cross $1 billion internationally. It should fare well over the holiday weekend, grossing $18 million over three days and $22 over four. Lastly, teen drama Everything, Everything performed decently with nearly $12 million despite a ridiculous premise, but should fall thanks to the fickle teen market, and gross about $6 million this weekend.


Forecast: Weekend of May 26-28, 2017
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales 4,276 New 52.4
2 Baywatch 3,647 New 31.0
3 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 N/A N/A 18.5
4 Alien: Covenant N/A N/A 14.6
5 Everything, Everything N/A N/A 5.7
6 Snatched N/A N/A 3.9
7 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword N/A N/A 3.6
8 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul N/A N/A 3.6
9 The Fate of the Furious N/A N/A 2.2
10 Boss Baby N/A N/A 1.6

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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